\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 013 Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) )
Event: the company recently released its 2021 annual report, realizing an annual revenue of 14.99 billion yuan, yoy + 22.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.27 billion yuan, yoy + 18.3%. The company's performance is basically consistent with the data disclosed in the previous performance express, and the overall performance is basically in line with market expectations. The company fully achieved its annual business objectives, with 110.2% of revenue and 103.4% of total profit.
The profitability increased quarter by quarter, and the annual profit margin decreased slightly year-on-year. In a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, 4.28 billion yuan, 3.7 billion yuan and 3.43 billion yuan from 2021q1 to Q4 respectively, yoy + 72.5%, + 36.7%, + 19.4% and - 12.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 210 million yuan, 320 million yuan, 360 million yuan and 380 million yuan, yoy + 225.2%, + 13.5%, + 29.0%, - 15.1%. The net interest rates in the four quarters were 5.9%, 7.4%, 9.7% and 11.2% respectively, and the profitability increased quarter by quarter. The annual gross profit margin decreased by 2.3ppt to 24.4% year-on-year, and the net profit margin decreased by 0.4ppt to 9.0% year-on-year.
R & D investment has been increasing, and contract liabilities have increased significantly. In 2021, the company's 1) management expense ratio was 13.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9ppt; 2) The sales expense ratio was 0.75%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.06ppt; 3) The financial expense rate was 0.14%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.03ppt; 4) The R & D cost was 780 million yuan, yoy + 30.8%, and the R & D cost rate was 5.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3ppt. By the end of 2021, 5) accounts receivable and bills were 8.38 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% over the beginning of the year; The inventory was 6.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.0% over the beginning of the year; 6) Contract liabilities were 2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 685.9% over the beginning of the year; 7) The net cash flow from operating activities was 6.38 billion yuan, yoy + 393.2%. The company received the advance contract payment from the main engine factory, and the operating cash flow improved significantly.
Continue to focus on the main aviation industry; Related party transactions are expected to increase significantly. 1) In 2021, the revenue of the company's aviation products reached 11.16 billion yuan, yoy + 23.9%, accounting for 74.5% of the total revenue, which has been increasing for five consecutive years. In addition to special aviation products, the company has made technical reserves in the field of civil aviation and participated in the development of C919, Jiaolong 600, ma700, Changjiang series engines and other airborne products, highlighting the position of aviation electromechanical business platform. The revenue of non aviation products was 3.72 billion yuan, yoy + 19.5%. The production and sales of air conditioning compressor and automobile angle adjuster have achieved year-on-year growth. 2) In 2022, the company expects the total amount of related party transactions to reach 24.91 billion yuan. Related procurement and related sales account for a large proportion. Specifically, the company expects related procurement of raw materials to be 6 billion yuan, an increase of 50% over the expected amount of 4 billion yuan in 2021; It is estimated that the related sales of products and commodities will be 13 billion yuan, an increase of 30% over the expected amount of 10 billion yuan in 2021. The total amount of related party transactions is expected to reflect the high prosperity of the industry.
Investment suggestion: the company is in the core leading position in China's aviation electromechanical industry, and the product pedigree is gradually improving. During the "14th five year plan" period, China's aviation sector will maintain the trend of accelerating the replacement of new models and the large-scale expansion of multiple models, which is the core driving force of the company's endogenous growth. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.553 billion yuan, 1.847 billion yuan and 2.173 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE of 27x / 22x / 19x from 2022 to 2024. It is covered for the first time and is rated as "recommended".
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, and the product R & D progress is less than expected.
