\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 862 Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.77%; The total profit was 706 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 591 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.25%. The company had previously put forward the annual business objectives: operating revenue of 3.8 billion yuan and total profit of 730 million yuan. Compared with this target, the completion rate of annual operating revenue is 100.20%, and the completion rate of total profit is 96.68%.
Comments:
Aviation new materials business achieved rapid growth and machine tool equipment business reduced losses: in 2021, the company’s aviation new materials business achieved an operating revenue of 3.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.14%; The total profit was 795 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.76%; The production and delivery volume of prepreg products of the subsidiary aviation industry composite material in the whole year hit a record high, and the delivery of brake parts in the subsidiary Youcai Baimu civil aviation and high-speed railway market increased significantly compared with the previous year. The annual operating income of machine tool equipment business was 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.85%; The total profit was – 30.06 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 7.05 million yuan.
The change of Q4 gross profit margin and the increase of R & D investment have an obvious impact on the annual net profit: the company’s Q1-Q4 operating revenue is RMB 991, 943, 916 and 957 million respectively, which is relatively balanced. Q1-Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 237 million, 146 million, 185 million and 23 million. The profit level of Q4 was significantly lower than that in the first three quarters. On the one hand, or because the product delivery structure changed, the gross profit margin of Q4 decreased to 21.78%, and the gross profit margin in the first three quarters were 35.32%, 30.52% and 32.58% respectively; On the other hand, the company increased its R & D efforts, and the annual R & D expenses reached 151 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.86%, of which Q4 R & D expenses reached 88.7 million yuan.
Focusing on technological innovation and business layout, the contract liabilities increased: in 21 years, the company expanded the business field of aviation composite raw materials with the transformation of scientific and technological achievements; Cultivate new strategic businesses around civil aircraft, commercial aeroengines and other fields. Breakthroughs have been made in the industrialization of domestic T800 prepreg, cr929 front fuselage, C919 tail wing, ag600 wall panel, commercial Aeroengine Parts and other directions and models. By the end of the 21st century, the contract liabilities had reached 696 million yuan, significantly higher than the level at the end of June, reflecting the urgent needs of the downstream to a certain extent.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that changes in product delivery structure and rhythm may cause fluctuations in profit level, and that the company, as a high-tech enterprise, may continue to increase R & D investment, the company lowered its profit forecast of 15.05% / 19.32% to 773 million yuan / 943 million yuan from 2022 to 2023, predicted a profit of 1.138 billion yuan in 2024, EPS of 0.56, 0.68 and 0.82 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE of current stock price is 39x, 32x and 27x respectively. Considering the company’s dominant position in the field of aviation composite materials in China, as well as the large volume of new military aircraft and the trend of localization and substitution of new materials, it is expected to bring opportunities for the company’s performance improvement and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of national defense and civil aviation market demand affected by national policies and macroeconomic fluctuations; The risk of market competition leading to the decline of dominant position; The risk that the speed of technological innovation is lower than expected.
