\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Events
On the evening of March 10, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 13.271 billion yuan, an increase of 28.95% at the same time; The total profit was 3.155 billion yuan, an increase of 27.55% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.54%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.201 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 24.14%.
Key investment points
2021 will end smoothly and we look forward to a good start in the first quarter
According to the performance express, the company successfully completed the basic goal of 2021 set in the 2020 annual report, “business goal of 2021: revenue of 12 billion yuan, with an increase of 16.59%; total profit of 2.847 billion yuan, with an increase of 15.08%”.
Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 3.169 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan, an increase of 1.7% at the same time; Deduct non RMB 299 million, an increase of 10.1% at the same time. The low growth rate of profits in the fourth quarter was due to the high investment costs of the company. According to channel feedback, the flow of people returning home during the Spring Festival has increased significantly, the dynamic sales of products are benign, and the probability of a good start in the first quarter is high.
The 14th five-year plan will be opened in and outside the province, with nationalization + secondary high-end dual drive
The company acquired laomingguang liquor industry in the province last year, with the intention of strengthening the leading position in the province and continuing to reap the market share of products with a price of less than 100 yuan in the province. At present, the 1000 yuan price band is expanding and rising. The company has a firm strategy to promote the secondary high-end GU20, and actively reserve high-end products such as antique New Year’s Eve.
In the 14th five year plan, the company adheres to the strategy of “nationalization + secondary high-end”, speeds up the promotion of “nationalization and secondary high-end”, and creates large-scale provinces, large-scale markets, large-scale customers, large-scale single products and large-scale outlets. The target of the proportion of the company’s revenue inside and outside the province in the 14th Five Year Plan period is 50-50. At present, it is mainly a big business model outside the province. The market around Anhui performs well, the momentum in Jiangsu and Hebei is good, and the market performance in Henan is outstanding. In recent years, the company has proposed to rebuild a new Anhui market in Henan market and improve the product structure.
Profit forecast
At present, there is a pattern of one super and many strong enterprises in Anhui Province. As the leader of Hui liquor, the company will continue to harvest the shares of other small and medium-sized liquor enterprises in the province. At present, the consumption in the province has been upgraded from 80-120 yuan to more than 200 yuan. The company mainly promotes Gu 20 to stand firm in the price band of 500 yuan, leading the consumption upgrading of Hui liquor. We continue to be optimistic about the continuous promotion of the company’s sub high-end + nationalization strategy. According to the performance express, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 4.55/6.03/7.60 yuan respectively (the previous values were 4.51/5.68/7.05 yuan respectively), and the current share price corresponding to PE was 44 / 33 / 26 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, the epidemic drag on consumption, the growth of gu8 and above is less than expected, the growth of Huanghelou is less than expected, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected.
