\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event overview
On March 17, the company announced that gac-e'an implemented employee equity incentive, shareholding of scientific and technological personnel of GAC Research Institute and simultaneous introduction of some strategic investors through non-public agreement capital increase. The total capital increase raised was 2.566 billion yuan. After the capital increase, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) holds 93.45% of the shares in ea'an, GAC's employee equity incentive platform and GAC Research Institute's scientific and technological personnel shareholding platform together hold about 4.55%, and Chengtong Group, Southern Network kinetic energy and Guangzhou AIAN together hold about 2%.
Analysis and judgment:
Establish a long-term incentive mechanism to stimulate the new vitality of state-owned enterprises
Employees and core scientific researchers are expected to stimulate the new vitality of state-owned enterprises. The capital increase introduces the equity incentive platform for gac-e'an employees and the "upper holding lower" shareholding platform for scientific and technological personnel of GAC Research Institute, with a total shareholding of about 4.55%. Corresponding to 679 employees participating in the equity incentive and 115 scientific and technological personnel of GAC Research Institute, the lock-in period is 5 years. This equity incentive is strong. Before the independent listing of ai'an, we bind employees and core scientific researchers. We believe that it is expected to fully stimulate the new vitality of the enterprise and improve the internal operation efficiency.
A round of financing is about to start, and the capital will support the growth of ea'an
After this non-public capital increase, ea'an will start a round of financing and joint-stock restructuring. The group accelerated the introduction of ai'an into the capital market, aiming to quickly improve the comprehensive competitiveness of ai'an and continuously improve its profitability with the help of capital. Since 2021, the group has completed the asset restructuring and capital increase of aian. At present, GAC AIAN has completed the restructuring and integration of relevant R & D personnel, intangible assets and fixed assets in the field of pure electric new energy vehicles, and has the ability to integrate the research, production and marketing of pure electric new energy vehicles. We believe that ai'an is gradually meeting the conditions for spin off and listing, and is expected to take off in the capital market after its wings are full.
Carrying the group's electric transformation valuation is expected to usher in reshaping
Since its inception, ea'an has undertaken the important task of transformation of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) pure electric new energy vehicles. Since its establishment in 2017, the recognition of the product end has been continuously improved since its development. In 2021, the cumulative sales volume reached 120200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 101.8%. In terms of production capacity, the second phase of production capacity expansion was completed in February this year, and now it has a production capacity of 200000 vehicles / year. The sales growth has driven into the fast lane and accelerated the group's electric transformation.
Electric smart overweight, valuation is expected to usher in reshaping. According to the scale and share ratio of this non-public financing, GAC AIAN is valued at about 39.2 billion yuan after the capital increase. Combined with the revenue of ea'an reported in the mid-term report of 2021, assuming that ASP remains unchanged, the annual revenue of 2021 is about 14 billion yuan, and the corresponding PS of this valuation is 3 times, which is underestimated compared with other new forces. We believe that the split listing of ea'an is expected to usher in the reshaping of valuation.
Investment advice
It is expected to benefit from the continuous growth of the joint venture's demand for first-line brands; With the continuous improvement of independent competitiveness, the replacement of fuel vehicles is accelerated under the drive of hybrid and intelligent dual core. The product strength of ai'an continues to be verified, and the mixed reform stimulates the vitality of state-owned enterprises, which is expected to take off with the help of the capital market. Maintain the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 75.29/86.26/98.1 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 73.7/99.8/11.76 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 0.71/0.96/1.14 yuan, the closing price of A-Shares on March 17, 2022 will be 11.22 yuan / share, and the PE will be 16 / 12 / 10 times. Maintain the "buy" rating of A-Shares of the company.
Risk tips
The sales volume of joint venture models is lower than expected; The profit of independent brand is less than expected; The mitigation of core failure is lower than expected.
