\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 29 Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) )
The industry has entered the stock era, and the company complies with the trend and leads the high-end brand: the output of China's beer industry continued to decline from 2014 to 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of - 29.6% compared with 2013. Under the trend of high-end, enterprises have shifted from the competition mode of horse racing enclosure to high-end to cater to consumption upgrading. Under the general trend of high-end industry, the company complies with the industry trend and launches Yanjing U8, V10, lion king and other high-end products to lead the high-end brand.
U8 large single products lead the high-end trend, and Yanjing Bajing complies with the trend of national tide: at present, the company has built a "1 + 3" brand matrix of Yanjing main brand + Huiquan, Liquan and Xuelu, and realized the full price coverage of low-end products below 3 yuan to high-end products above 10 yuan. Yanjing U8 large single product cuts into the middle and high-end market competition with the differentiated positioning of low alcohol wine; From 2019 to 2020, the company successively launched the "Eight Sights of Yanjing" series to promote the high-end process of the company's products with the two selling points of "national tide" + "fine brewing".
Channel: Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) make concerted efforts to actively promote channel reform: the company cooperates with e-commerce and mainly promotes medium and high-end products in online channels. In 2021, during tmall's double 11, the contribution rate of Gmv of the company's medium and high-end products reached 62%. In terms of offline channels, the company opened new offline channels to test the "Yanjing community wine number" of the water pub. The company relies on the consumption scene of small pubs to cultivate consumers, and mainly promotes high-end products such as fine brewing. The company reduces the distribution links through in-depth distribution, which is conducive to the cost investment being more concentrated on dealers and improving the company's terminal price control.
Marketing: build a national Yanjing, young people's Yanjing: in terms of brand marketing, "national brand" has always been synonymous with Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) . In 2022, the company sponsored the Beijing Winter Olympic Games again after sponsoring the Beijing Summer Olympic Games, and gained a huge marketing voice in the Winter Olympic marketing. In recent years, the company has made continuous efforts in brand rejuvenation. By signing contracts with popular traffic stars such as Wang Yibo and CAI Xukun, the company has entered the young group, further promoted U8, Yanjing Bajing and other national fashion new products, and expanded Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) the brand influence among young consumers.
Start the five-year strategic transformation and look forward to the east wind of state-owned enterprise reform: reduce staff and increase efficiency, and improve the production efficiency of Yan beer. At the end of 2020, the number of employees of the company decreased by 14255 compared with that in 2013, and the production efficiency increased from 136 kiloliters / person in 2013 to 249 kiloliters / person. The per capita profitability continued to rise from the lowest point in 2017 to 10000 yuan / person. In September 2020, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) comprehensively launched the five-year growth and transformation strategic project. In the future, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) will take the four key measures of "strong brand, solid channel, deep cultivation of market and lean operation" as the important content of strategic transformation.
Investment suggestions: it is estimated that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 11.786/12.877/13.657 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8% / 9% / 6% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 289 / 390 / 543 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47% / 35% / 39% respectively. Given the investment rating of overweight-a, the 12-month target price is 8.7 yuan, equivalent to 45.2 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk tip: the macroeconomic growth rate is lower than expected; The promotion of new products is less than expected; Changes in management; Risk of food safety incidents.
