Key data points:
This week, the transaction area of new houses in 42 major cities increased by 8% month on month, and the cumulative transaction area in 2021 increased by 4% year-on-year. Beijing and Shanghai increased by 51% and decreased by 35% month on month respectively. 1、 The cumulative transaction area of second and third tier cities increased by 14%, 12% and 8% respectively year-on-year. The cumulative trading volume of Wuhu, Fuzhou, Zhuhai and Hangzhou increased by about 118%, 71%, 47% and 59% respectively in 2021.
By the end of 2021, the saleable area (inventory) of 13 major cities had decreased by 0.3% month on month; The average decontamination cycle was 14.2 months, with an average month on month decrease of 2%. The de chemical cycles of Dongying and Guangzhou changed from 14.2 months and 8.9 months last week to 11.3 months and 7.5 months respectively, down 20% and 16% month on month respectively.
This week, the construction area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 major cities increased by 7% month on month. Chengdu and Jinhua increased by 273% and 29% month on month respectively. In 2021, the cumulative transaction area decreased by 9% year-on-year. Shenzhen, Nanning and Dongguan decreased by 57%, 38% and 31% year-on-year respectively in 2021.
This week’s view:
This week, new home sales were relatively stable. Under the preferential policies of optimizing the housing provident fund and relaxing the settlement restrictions in some cities, the transaction volume in Beijing, Qingdao and other cities increased month on month, driving the month on month increase in the Bohai Rim region; On the other hand, affected by epidemic control and other factors, the turnover in the Yangtze River Delta decreased month on month, driving the growth rate of new house turnover in key cities to decline slightly compared with last week, with a month on month increase of 8% (up 9% last week). In terms of second-hand housing transactions, sales in some cities such as Xiamen and Jinhua have picked up, and sales in key cities have increased month on month.
In terms of inventory, the annual sales of new houses in key cities increased slightly (4%) compared with the same period of last year, driving the average cycle of decommissioning in key cities to decline month on month.
Investment suggestions:
At the end of the year, the policy continued to encourage and promote the development of the industry in terms of public offering REITs and housing security, and the cumulative sales growth of the top 100 real estate enterprises turned negative year-on-year. This week, the central and local policies mainly promote the healthy development and virtuous circle of the industry from three aspects: 1) encourage and promote the development of REITs in the field of infrastructure. For example, the national development and Reform Commission proposes not to refuse the project warehousing for any reason, the Ministry of culture and Tourism supports the development of cultural parks in the field of infrastructure REITs and PPP mode, and Jiangxi encourages the pilot application of affordable rental housing for REITs, It may help to speed up the construction of different types of urban infrastructure and promote the development of public REITs market. 2) Continue to strengthen and standardize the market order and promote the healthy and stable development of the industry. For example, in the 2022 working meeting, the central bank required to control the Prudential Management System of real estate finance, Hangzhou issued real estate registration regulations, and improve the market supervision mechanism, which will help to solve some market chaos and promote a virtuous circle of real estate industry. 3) Continue to strengthen the construction of indemnificatory rental housing. For example, Beijing proposes that a certain proportion of public rental housing, indemnificatory rental housing and other related construction should be built for property right housing construction projects, so as to better meet the reasonable housing needs of residents. In 2021, the real estate industry still adheres to the “three stabilities” as the main guidance, and continuously integrates and optimizes its internal structure through financial and industrial policies. Affected by macroeconomic and industrial policy regulation and other factors, the cumulative sales amount of top 100 real estate enterprises has turned negative year-on-year. While paying attention to the industry trend in the new year, real estate enterprises of all sizes may continue to maintain their own financial situation Stable business structure is the main development goal. Maintain the industry’s “stronger than the market” rating.
Risk tip: there may be some uncertainty in industry regulation and financing policies, which may affect the sales performance of listed companies; Macroeconomic fluctuations may have a certain impact on the operation of enterprises in the industry; Epidemic control is uncertain.
