Event description:
Kerui released the sales of real estate enterprises in December 2021. The cumulative sales volume was the top 100. The sales growth rate of real estate enterprises continued to decline in December 2021. The annual cumulative sales amount decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the sales amount in a single month in December decreased by 36.0% year-on-year.
Event comments:
This month, the sales growth of the top 100 real estate enterprises turned negative year-on-year. In 2021, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved sales of 12.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% (an increase of 1.8% in November before 2021); The sales area reached 846 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% (a decrease of 7.0% in November before 2021). In December, under the influence of epidemic control, policy implementation and the rhythm of commercial housing entering the market in some cities, some buyers still took a wait-and-see attitude towards the real estate market, driving the growth rate of cumulative transaction amount of top 100 real estate enterprises to negative. The decline in cumulative sales growth of real estate enterprises of all sizes expanded, and the year-on-year decline in monthly sales of large real estate enterprises narrowed. By the end of 2021, the cumulative sales growth of real estate enterprises of all sizes continued to decline. Among them, the cumulative sales of real estate enterprises ranking 51-100 had the largest decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% (the top 10 and 11-50 real estate enterprises had a year-on-year decrease of 6% and an increase of 2% respectively). In terms of monthly sales performance in December, the real estate enterprises ranked 51-100 in cumulative sales decreased most significantly, up to 49% (the real estate enterprises ranked top 10 and 11-50 in cumulative sales decreased by 26% and 35%). From January to December 2021, the real estate enterprises with rapid cumulative sales growth are Jianfa real estate (+ 32%), Greentown China (+ 24%), Baolong real estate (+ 24%) and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) (+ 24%).
The central government encourages mergers and acquisitions of high-quality projects of real estate enterprises in danger, and continues to promote the supervision of pre-sale funds in many places. In December, based on the marginal improvement of the credit environment, the central policy further stabilized the market sentiment from the aspect of optimizing the internal structure of the industry, or is expected to promote the sales of commercial housing market. For example, the cbcirc stressed the need to steadily deal with the debt risk of large entity enterprises, and the regulators encouraged and purchased high-quality projects of insurance real estate enterprises, so that the industry risk crisis may be effectively alleviated in the future, The market competitiveness of some high-quality real estate enterprises is expected to improve. Local policies mainly focus on: 1) further strengthen the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds. For example, Shijiazhuang puts forward capital supervision requirements for real estate enterprise developers, buyers and loan banks to ensure the safety of funds and ensure the delivery of commercial housing through various ways, which is conducive to stabilizing market confidence and promoting commercial housing market sales. 2) affordable housing affordable housing development: Hangzhou announced that non Hangzhou registered residence can purchase property ownership houses, Shanghai requires financial institutions and markets to focus on the different types of affordable housing, and increase financial products and services to ensure that residents need housing. At present, under the tone of “no speculation in real estate and housing”, the central government encourages the merger and acquisition of endangered real estate enterprise projects, local governments expand the supervision scope of pre-sale funds, and accelerate the process of affordable housing, which is conducive to boost market sentiment and continue to promote the virtuous circle of the real estate industry, and the housing needs of some residents are expected to be gradually met.
Investment suggestions:
In 2021, the cumulative sales amount of top 100 real estate enterprises turned negative year-on-year. Although the industrial policies show a marginal improvement trend (such as canceling the restrictions on talent settlement in many places, giving house purchase subsidies, conditionally increasing the amount of provident fund loans for families with many children, etc.), affected by the rhythm of commercial housing entering the market and the time of policy implementation, it may still take some time for market sales to recover, and abundant funds and sufficient land resource reserves are still the main competitive advantages of real estate enterprises. Maintain the industry’s “stronger than the market” rating.
Risk warning: there is uncertainty in the control policy and epidemic prevention and control policy; The company’s sales settlement may fluctuate.
