1.1 terminal Innovation: electric vehicle / photovoltaic / 5G / artificial intelligence / VraR, etc., driving the growth of semiconductor demand
The global semiconductor industry continues to grow and the ceiling continues to move up
Global semiconductor sales: US $142.2 billion in 2002, US $291.6 billion in 2012, US $440.4 billion in 2020 and US $553 billion in 2021;
Historically, PC and smart phone are the two core engines of semiconductor growth; At present, there are more than terminal innovations: intelligent and electric vehicles, photovoltaic wind power energy storage, 5g and Internet of things, AI / cloud computing, arvr, etc., which promote the continuous growth of semiconductor demand.
1.2 the trend of industrial transfer to China is significant, but the overall trade deficit is still large
The trend of industrial transfer to China is significant. China’s growth rate is higher than that of the world, and the overall trade deficit is still large:
In 2012, China’s semiconductor sales revenue was 215.9 billion yuan, and in 2019, China’s integrated circuit revenue was 756.2 billion yuan, cagr77.7 billion yuan 22%； In 2020, the sales will be 884.8 billion yuan. In 2021, under the background of rising prices of various semiconductor devices caused by “core shortage”, it is expected that the semiconductor sales will still maintain double-digit growth;
China’s annual trade deficit in the integrated circuit industry is still large: according to the statistics of China’s customs, the import amount of China’s integrated circuits in 2019 was US $304 billion, a year-on-year decrease of – 2.2%. China’s IC exports amounted to US $101.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%. The overall trade deficit narrowed to US $20.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%, but it is still twice the export amount in the Old Testament. In recent years, although China’s IC export value has increased synchronously with the increase of import value, the overall trade deficit is still very huge.
