The five ministries and commissions issued a five-year action plan: help promote the major links of “cost reduction, efficiency enhancement and technological innovation” in the photovoltaic industry. On January 4, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of transport, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice on printing and distributing the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025).
The plan requires that by 2025, the mass production conversion efficiency of new high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries will be significantly improved, and a complete supporting capacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, equipment, materials and devices will be formed.
The plan proposes to accelerate the development and breakthrough of large-size silicon wafers, high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and components. Consolidate the foundation of supporting industries and promote the technological upgrading of key raw and auxiliary materials, equipment, parts and components of intelligent photovoltaic. In the column of innovation and improvement action of intelligent photovoltaic industry in this plan, it is clearly pointed out that:
1) Polysilicon: support the production of low-energy and low-cost polysilicon, improve product quality and stability, and expand the breakthrough of high-purity electronic grade polysilicon. Research and promote the automation and intelligence of polysilicon production and post-processing.
2) Silicon rod / wafer: support the drawing of large-size monocrystalline silicon rod and improve the feeding capacity of single furnace. Study the cutting technology of large size, low loss and ultra-thin sheet. Promote automatic production line and logistics line, and establish silicon wafer information traceability system.
3) Crystalline silicon battery: continuously improve the conversion efficiency of p-type crystalline silicon battery, and carry out the R & D and industrialization of n-type TOPCON, hjt, IBC and other high-efficiency batteries. Improve the ability of automatic transmission and intelligent perception between processes.
4) Photovoltaic modules: support the development and application of high-efficiency module production technologies such as multi main grid, non-destructive cutting and high-density packaging, and accelerate the R & D and industrialization of perovskite, laminated and other new battery modules. Develop long-life and high safety BIPV photovoltaic components and photovoltaic tiles to support building roof photovoltaic action. Develop and promote component production automation equipment, and strengthen the formulation and implementation of unified component size standards. Continue to be optimistic about the high-quality enterprises of silicon wafer, battery chip and module equipment with the ability of “cost reduction, efficiency increase and technological innovation” in the four links of the main photovoltaic industry chain.
Photovoltaic industry: the supply is expected to improve, and the price of the industrial chain enters the downward channel; Promote the downstream demand of photovoltaic
1) The industry price entered the downward channel to release downstream demand: as of the most Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain price statistics this week, the silicon material price has fallen for five consecutive weeks, with a total decline of nearly 15%. In 2022, the silicon material end will usher in the launch of new capacity. The relaxation of the silicon material supply end and the decline of the price are expected to drive the photovoltaic modules back to the vicinity of the price band of 1.8 yuan / W and promote the demand for new installed capacity in the downstream.
2) Photovoltaic industry: we estimate that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China is expected to reach 416-536gw and CAGR will reach 24% – 26% in 2030; The global new installed capacity demand will reach 1246-1491gw, and the CAGR will reach 25% – 27%. The demand for photovoltaic installed capacity will grow tenfold in the next decade, with huge market space.
Heterojunction: CAGR of the industry will exceed 80% in the next 5 years; Photovoltaic heterojunction, a leading company with a market value of 100 billion, is expected to be born. It is very important to reduce the cost of photovoltaic kWh and promote it on a global scale, so as to realize “carbon neutralization”. It is the “star of the future” of photovoltaic. In the future, it will replace perc as the third generation mainstream application technology of photovoltaic cells. It is estimated that the market space of hjt equipment is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR in five years is 80%. Under the assumption of 20% net interest rate and 25 times PE, the market value of hjt equipment industry is 200 billion yuan. It is expected that the industry’s leading market is expected to account for more than 50%, and the market value is expected to reach 100 billion in the future.
Granular silicon: it will enter the stage of rapid and large-scale modular replication; The industrialization process was accelerated to help reduce the cost of photovoltaic. In November 2021, 20000 tons of silane fluidized bed granular silicon was officially put into operation in Xuzhou. It is the first 20000 ton modular granular silicon project of GCL. In the future, Leshan, Baotou and other projects will take this project as the benchmark template. Granular silicon saves electricity by 70% and reduces carbon emission by 60% – 70%. It is easier to obtain energy consumption and carbon emission indicators than traditional silicon materials. It is expected to accelerate the promotion of photovoltaic as the main force of “carbon neutralization”.
Investment suggestion: the demand for photovoltaic is ten times in ten years; Embrace new technological changes such as hjt, perovskite, photovoltaic hydrogen production and energy storage
1) Focus on high growth hjt equipment leaders, and closely track new technological changes such as perovskite, photovoltaic hydrogen production and energy storage.
2) Key recommendations: Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Be optimistic about Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) , Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co.Ltd(002079) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) .
Risk warning: risk of photovoltaic products or technology substitution; The downstream expansion is less than expected; The impact of the epidemic on overseas demand.
