Multiple positive factors, power exchange ushers in a development outlet: with the gradual improvement of China’s policy, many parties can benefit from the power exchange mode. For consumers, the purchase cost of power exchange is low and the supply efficiency is high, especially for operating models, the power exchange advantage is obvious; Power station operators can obtain a broader market and a better profit model; The battery factory centralizes the management of the battery, which is convenient for the echelon utilization and recycling of the battery, while obtaining more battery data and realizing positive research and development; Vehicle manufacturers launch various sales plans to open the market according to consumers’ demand for power replacement; For the society, the power exchange mode can reduce the risk of uneven power grid load and promote the realization of the social goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization.
There is still resistance to the promotion of power exchange, and the pain points of development are being broken one by one: the power exchange mode has obvious advantages in cost and efficiency, but its development also faces many pain points. First, the power station is asset oriented, which requires more capital investment in the early stage, and the subsequent profits need to improve the utilization rate (service times), which is more suitable for commercial vehicles with long mileage; Second, the degree of standardization of power exchange is low, and each battery model is different. However, with the addition of leading battery manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and the introduction of national policies, it is expected to promote battery standardization; Third, the power exchange mode faces great resistance from the main engine plant, and the main engine plant faces the risk of losing core technology. However, with the large-scale construction of the power exchange station, the demand of operating model consumers for replacing electric models has increased significantly, which promotes the main engine plant to launch replacing electric models.
2022 is the first year of the power exchange plant, and the power exchange equipment manufacturers benefit the most: the core equipment of the power exchange plant are charge and discharge equipment, detection equipment and automation equipment. Taking the passenger car replacement station as an example, it is composed of the outer warehouse (container) as the main body, and the container is divided into battery warehouse, monitoring office warehouse, ramp, AGV, battery disassembly and transportation machinery, charging warehouse, etc; Compared with passenger cars, commercial vehicle power station also includes hoisting equipment. In terms of value, the unit investment of passenger car power exchange equipment is about 2.6 million yuan and that of commercial vehicle power exchange equipment is about 4.2 million yuan. The technical and market threshold of power exchange equipment is not high, and the core competitiveness lies in reliability and accuracy, as well as the renewal and iteration of equipment. (1) Reliability: there are few “black technologies” for power exchange equipment, and the reliability requirements of the equipment are high. Generally, the utilization frequency of the mechanical arm of the power exchange station reaches 1400 times / day, and the service life reaches at least half a year. How to achieve better technology, lower cost and better stability is the main goal pursued by the equipment supplier. (2) Accuracy: the accuracy is mainly reflected in the accuracy of the power exchange port, and the general accuracy is required to reach the millimeter level. We expect that in 2025, more than 16000 new power stations will be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 60 billion yuan.
Related objects: (1) Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) (688022. SH): extended from the automotive electronics production line supplier to the power exchange equipment supplier. The company’s power exchange business is positioned as a power exchange equipment manufacturer and equipment maintenance provider. It has accumulated a lot of technology and process knowhow in the production of automotive electronic automation equipment, which can be directly converted into the R & D and production of power exchange equipment, and gradually establish the competitive barrier of the company’s power exchange business. The technical advantages of the company’s power exchange are mainly reflected in three aspects: identification accuracy, transmission stability and assembly speed. (2) Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) (002015. SZ): an advanced operator of clean energy, cutting into the operation service of replacement power station. The clean energy business and the power exchange station have strong synergy. The clean energy business provides low-cost power for the power exchange station. The energy storage nature of the power exchange station can reduce repeated investment. The cascade utilization of energy storage batteries or power batteries can realize the construction of low-cost energy storage station. The company implements the “electric port model”, cooperates with car enterprises and travel platforms to launch electric vehicle replacement and corresponding power replacement stations, and integrates power replacement resources as a third-party platform. (3) Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) (002026. SZ): swarp, its subsidiary, cooperates deeply with Weilai to cut into the power exchange equipment market. Starting from drill chuck and its accessories, the company has gradually grown into a leading enterprise in the electric parts industry. Through external acquisition and internal business expansion, the company has increasingly enriched its product categories. In 2016, the company acquired Suzhou DeMarco and began to carry out research and development of power exchange equipment and technical reserves; In August 2017, Kunshan swop was jointly established with Weilai to lay out the power station business. (4) Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) (300222. SZ): strategic cooperation with Weilai to cut into the field of power exchange equipment earlier. (5) Shanghai jiuhang (unlisted): a manufacturer of charging and replacement equipment, providing charging and replacement and energy system solutions. (6) Bertin Technology (unlisted): innovate the “box for box” mode and actively promote the separation of vehicle and electricity. (7) Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) (300582. SZ): increase capital to take shares in oswell layout and power station equipment, and form cooperation with Bertin technology.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than the market expectation, and the promotion of electric vehicle replacement is lower than the market expectation.
