Market Review
In December, CS commerce and retail industry increased by 2.42% and decreased by 1.0% in the same period of last year. The market performance was stronger than that in the same period of last year, outperforming the market by 7.34pct. In terms of sub sectors, most sub sectors rose, and the top three sub sectors were other chains, supermarkets and professional markets, with 8.78%, 6.73% and 6.07% respectively. The supermarket sector led the increase. Most industry stocks rose. The PE valuation level of the industry as a whole showed a correction, down from last month. The PE trend of each sub sector was relatively stable, and the PE valuation of jewelry sector increased significantly.
Industry monthly data tracking
The year-on-year increase of CPI expanded, and food prices turned from decline to rise. In November, CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8pct over the previous month, which was mainly affected by the low base in the same period last year and the new price rise this month. Among them, food prices increased by 1.6% year-on-year from a decrease of 2.4% last month, and non food prices increased by 2.5%, an increase of 0.1pct over the previous month. Structurally, the price increase of fresh vegetables and aquatic products continued to expand, the decline of pork price narrowed and other factors jointly affected the food price from decline to rise, driving the CPI increase to expand, while the transportation and communication category led to the continuous rise of non food prices.
The growth rate of market sales has dropped, and online consumer demand continues to release. In November, social zero increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down 1PCT from the previous month, with an average growth of 4.4% in the two years. The growth rate of market sales has decreased, mainly affected by the multi-point spread of the epidemic and other factors. The catering revenue has changed from growth to decline, but the retail growth of basic living and some upgraded commodities is good. Online consumer demand continued to release, online retail maintained rapid growth, and online penetration increased significantly month on month. From January to November, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 13.2% year-on-year, decreased by 1.4pct compared with January to October, accounting for 24.5% of social zero, and significantly increased by 0.8pct compared with January to October.
The growth rate of physical retail formats accelerated, and retail formats such as supermarkets and convenience stores increased steadily. It is estimated that from January to November, the retail sales of physical stores increased by 13.9% year-on-year, 1.1pct slower than that from January to October. Among them, the year-on-year growth in November was 3.5%, 0.2pct faster than that in October. From January to November, the retail sales of supermarkets and warehouse member stores increased by 6.4% and 14.5% respectively year-on-year, 0.4pct and 1PCT faster than that from January to October respectively; The growth rate of retail sales of convenience stores was the same as that from January to October, still maintaining double-digit rapid growth. From January to November, the retail sales of 100 key large retail enterprises in China increased by 9.9%, down 2.5pct compared with the growth rate from January to October, including a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% in November, an increase of 3.9pct compared with the previous month.
Industry news
Network anchor Weiya was fined 1.341 billion yuan for suspected tax evasion;
Tiktok box on the line, Taobao overweight “stroll”, create a new mode of electricity supplier;
Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) the first membership warehouse supermarket is located in Hongyang square, Jinan
investment strategy
Under the increasingly strict internet supervision environment, the monopoly pattern of head anchor is broken, which provides a good opportunity for middle waist talent and brand self broadcasting. Online retail has gradually matured, offline terminal stores are still the main body of retail, the Internet platform actively enables physical commerce as a way of channel landing and sinking, and the digital penetration of stores still has great room to improve. At present, the epidemic situation in China is spreading in many places. Local new year’s celebrations and home scenes may still be the theme of consumption in the new year’s goods Festival. The new business format and new retail model integrated with Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) such as live delivery and supermarket delivery home service will continue to develop. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of mandatory consumption and the continuous recovery of optional consumption in the Spring Festival scenario, Mainly focus on the following main lines: 1) domestic brands are close to consumer demand and accelerate sinking penetration. Leading enterprises continue to increase market share through new media marketing: Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ; 2) Jewelry consumption tends to be daily, the demand of low-level cities rises and channels are encrypted. There is a broad space for new diamond track Cultivation: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) ; 3) Offline channel value remodeling, undervalued + warehouse expansion, physical supermarkets are expected to usher in valuation repair market: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) .
Risk statement
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; The effect of consumption upgrading is less than expected; Diversion of new business forms and intensification of market competition; The epidemic situation in China spreads in many places, affecting consumer confidence and willingness.
