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On January 1, the national film administration of China released data that the total box office of China Film Co.Ltd(600977) in 2021 reached 47.26 billion yuan, including 39.927 billion yuan for domestic films, accounting for 84.49% of the total box office.
Key investment points
In 2021, China’s box office revenue has recovered to 74% of the pre epidemic level, and the increase of ticket prices is the main driving force. The total box office of China Film Co.Ltd(600977) in 2021 reached 47.26 billion, an increase of 132.6% over 2020, accounting for 73.67% of China’s total box office of 64.15 billion in 2019. The number of films released in China has reached a new high, but there are insufficient high-quality films, and the box office revenue is further concentrated on the head films. A total of 697 films were released in China in 2021, a record high, an increase of 14.08% over 2019. The top three were Changjin lake, Hello, Li Huanying and Chinatown detective 3. The box office in 2021 was 5.772 billion, 5.413 billion and 4.513 billion respectively, with a total box office revenue of 15.698 billion, accounting for 33.22% of the annual box office, while the box office of tpo3 in 2019 and 2020 accounted for only 7.8% and 15.4%. In terms of the number of film viewers, the number of Chinese film viewers reached 1.167 billion in 2021, a decrease of 33.28% compared with 1.728 billion in 2019, while the average ticket price increased from 37.11 yuan in 2019 to 40.2 yuan in 2021, an increase of 8.54%, which is the main factor supporting the box office in 2022.
The holiday effect is more and more significant, and imported films are still insufficient. In 2021, the box office revenue of Holiday Golden stalls accounted for more than one third of the whole year. Under the impact of the epidemic, film companies generally choose a more conservative filing strategy. The Holiday Golden file in 2021 is the centralized release period of high-quality films. The box office of new year’s day, Spring Festival, may day and national day all hit a record high, while the box office revenue of Holiday Golden file accounted for only 22.6% in the same period in 2019. In terms of imported films, the box office of imported films in 2021 was 7.33 billion yuan, accounting for 15.51%. Only speed and passion 9 (1.392 billion yuan) and Godzilla vs. King Kong (1.233 billion yuan) grossed more than one billion yuan, while Marvel Super Hero films with strong box office appeal, such as black widow and venom 2, were collectively absent from the mainland screen due to the epidemic situation, As a result, the box office contribution of imported films is insufficient.
The proportion of third and fourth tier cities continued to increase, the market concentration first increased and then decreased, and the market share of leading cinemas continued to increase. In 2021, the proportion of box office revenue in first tier, second tier, third tier and fourth tier cities was 16.7%, 44.1%, 18.4% and 20.8% respectively, with a change of – 2.4%, – 2.3%, + 1.5% and + 3.2% respectively compared with 2019. The proportion of box office revenue in first tier and second tier cities gradually decreased. The third and fourth tier cities recovered rapidly after the epidemic, and the proportion of box office revenue increased from 34.3% in 2019 to 39.2%. In terms of cinema market share, from January to November 2021, China’s CR3 cinema market was 23.49%. Affected by the epidemic control, it decreased by 0.82% compared with 2020 and increased by 1.09% compared with 2019. Among them, the market share of Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) leading cinema from 2019 to January November 2021 was 13.30%, 14.90% and 14.93% respectively, and the market share of China continued to increase.
Looking forward to the Spring Festival in 2022, the supply of high-quality films is sufficient, which is expected to drive the box office of new year’s day to a new high. Before the epidemic, there were about 7-9 film tickets for the Spring Festival every year. At present, there are 13 films for the Spring Festival in 2022, an increase from 11 in 2021 and 8 in 2019. Yiyang Qianxi one family, miracle and Sihai are highly concerned about the market. The main actors Shen Teng, Yi Wan Qian Xi and Liu Haoran have a certain box office appeal. At the same time, there are many animated films such as “sniper” directed by Zhang Yimou, as well as “haunting bear”, “cherry ball”, “happy ocean and grey wolf”, “Jurassic Park”, etc. the overall quality of the spring festival film in 2022 is expected to be further improved, and the box office value is expected in the future.
Investment suggestion: China Film and television continues to maintain a recovery trend. The box office of the golden file on holidays has repeatedly reached a new high, and the consumer demand for film viewing is strong. It is expected that the overall quality of the film on New Year’s day will be improved, and the box office is expected to reach a new high. It is recommended to continue to pay attention.
Risk factors: repeated outbreaks outside China; The supply of high-quality films is less than expected; Box office performance fell short of expectations.
