event
The Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. 1) the subsidy for non-public new energy vehicles will decline by 30% in 2022 based on 2021, of which the subsidy for EV vehicles with a range of more than 400km will be reduced from 18000 yuan to 12600 yuan, and the subsidy for EV vehicles with a range of 300-400km will be reduced from 13000 yuan to 9100 yuan; 2) The subsidy for new energy vehicles in the public sector has declined by 20%; 3) The subsidy for new energy vehicles will continue until December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after 2023 will no longer be subsidized; 4) The ceiling of 2 million vehicles was lifted.
On December 27, 2021, new energy vehicle insurance was implemented, and some medium and high-end electric vehicle insurance was increased. Tesla‘s national average was + 10%, and the price of Xiaopeng’s whole line models increased by 3% – 18%.
Some auto companies released the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December, of which Tesla Q4 delivered more than 300000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 28%, Byd Company Limited(002594) sales volume of 94000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 4%, Xiaopeng 16000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 2%, ideal 14000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 4%, Weilai 10000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 4%, Zero run of 8000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 39%.
Key investment points
2022 is the last year of new energy vehicle subsidy, and the sales volume is expected to continue to increase. Affected by this news, many auto companies announced price increases, including Tesla, Volkswagen and Nezha. The market is worried that the decline of subsidies and the price increase of auto companies combined with the surge of lithium carbonate in the upstream will affect the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream. In the short term, affected by emotions, the stock price fluctuates. The subsidy policy continues the decline range of previous years, with a decline of 30% to ensure a smooth decline. At the same time, it defines the termination date of the subsidy policy and liberalizes the upper limit of 2 million vehicles. We expect that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle sales are expected to continue to increase in the last year of the subsidy.
The premium increase is mainly aimed at the middle and high-end, and the overall impact on consumers is limited. The premium increase of new energy vehicles is mainly aimed at medium and high-end models. The reasons for the increase include: the maintenance cost of new energy vehicles is more expensive than traditional fuel vehicles, and the projects covered by new energy insurance are wider than fuel vehicles, including not only the three major parts of battery, motor and electronic control, but also multiple use scenarios such as electric car charging and driving. The premium of low-end models has little change, and the overall impact on consumers is limited.
The sales volume continued to increase in December, and the sales volume of 2022q1 is expected to be not weak in the off-season. At the end of 2021, the sales volume of many auto enterprises such as new forces, Tesla and independent brands continued to increase rapidly in December. Recently, battery leading enterprises mobilized employees to have no holiday during the Spring Festival. It is expected that the emission capacity in 2022q1 will be the same as that in 2021q4, and the prosperity will continue. We continue to be optimistic about the battery link with price increase logic this year. Coupled with the large amount of energy storage, the battery link is expected to usher in both volume and price increases.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to lithium carbonate with price increase logic and power battery with profit repair.
Risk factors: the sales volume of electric vehicles does not meet expectations; Industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise; Policy uncertainty of new energy vehicle industry.
