event:
On January 4, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of transport, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the action plan for innovative development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025).
comment:
The plan requires that by 2025, photovoltaic intelligence will be significantly improved and industrial technological innovation will make a breakthrough. The mass production conversion efficiency of the new high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery has been significantly improved, forming a complete supporting capacity of silicon materials, silicon wafers, equipment, materials and devices. The construction of intelligent photovoltaic industry ecosystem has been basically completed, and the integration level with the new generation of information technology has been gradually deepened. Significant progress has been made in intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, and the supply capacity of intelligent photovoltaic products has been enhanced.
In particular, the plan points out the development of inverters based on wide band gap materials, power devices and chips. To improve the safety of inverter system, intelligent technologies such as real-time monitoring and processing, online PID suppression and repair, intelligent support tracking, high-performance IV scanning diagnosis, component level monitoring, etc. Establish inverter quality traceability mechanism to improve inverter manufacturing efficiency and product reliability.
Third generation semiconductors such as silicon carbide are expected to accelerate the introduction of photovoltaic inverters. As a representative of wide band gap semiconductor materials, silicon carbide devices have the advantages of low loss, high switching frequency, high applicability and reducing system heat dissipation requirements. They are widely used in the field of photovoltaic new energy. In series inverters in photovoltaic systems in residential and commercial facilities, silicon carbide devices bring cost and efficiency benefits at the system level. Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and other leading photovoltaic inverter enterprises have applied silicon carbide devices to their series inverters.
With the rapid growth of the downstream market, the SiC market will reach 2.562 billion yuan in 2025. According to yole’s report, the market scale of SiC Power Devices in 2019 is US $541 million. Driven by the market demand of electric vehicles, charging piles, photovoltaic new energy and so on, it is expected to increase to US $2.562 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 30%.
Smart optical storage system will increase the demand for power semiconductors such as IGBT. The plan proposes to develop intelligent optical storage system, promote the integrated development of photovoltaic power station and pumped storage, electrochemical energy storage and flywheel energy storage, and build a number of power side photovoltaic energy storage projects to ensure the efficient consumption and utilization of photovoltaic power generation. According to the guidance on accelerating the development of new energy storage (Exposure Draft) issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration, the installed capacity of new energy storage in China will reach more than 30GW by 2025. As the core device of energy storage inverter, the demand for IGBT will increase with the construction of optical storage system.
Investment suggestions:
It is recommended to pay attention to Tianyue advanced and Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) , the silicon carbide substrate manufacturer, and arrange the silicon carbide power device company Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) in advance, and the silicon carbide whole industry chain company Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) .
Risk tips:
The capacity expansion of silicon carbide is less than expected, and the permeability of silicon carbide is less than expected.
