Market review: in 2021, the brokerage index fell by 4.2%, and the performance of individual stocks was significantly differentiated
In the past two weeks (2021.12.20-2021.12.31), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.1%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.3%, and the gem index fell 3.3%. Non bank finance (Shenwan) fell by 0.5%, ranking 21 / 28, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2 percentage points; Among them, the brokerage index fell 0.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2 percentage points.
In 2021, the Shanghai stock index rose by 4.8%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 5.2%, the non bank index fell by 17.5%, and the brokerage index fell by 4.2%. Specifically, the performance of brokerage stocks was significantly differentiated throughout the year. If the secondary new shares Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) were not considered, only 9 brokerage stocks achieved positive returns in the whole year. Among them, the five securities companies with the largest increase are Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (+ 56%), East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) (+ 44%), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (+ 30%), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (+ 16%) and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) (+ 5%).
Industry weekly data: the average turnover on Sunday fell 6.6% month on month, falling slightly for three consecutive weeks
Brokerage business: last week (December 27, 2021-december 31, 2021), the daily average stock base turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1107.9 billion yuan, down 6.6% month on month compared with 1186.1 billion yuan last week, and the market trading volume fell for three consecutive weeks.
Investment banking: last week (December 27, 2021-december 31, 2021), the scale of equity financing was 51.9 billion yuan (mom + 20%); The IPO Financing scale was RMB 11.2 billion (Mom - 47%), and the refinancing scale was RMB 40.7 billion (mom + 82%). In terms of the number of companies, 34 companies conducted equity financing last week (9 IPO and 25 refinancing).
Capital intermediary business: as of last Friday (December 31, 2021), the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1832.2 billion yuan, unchanged month on month. The balance of the two financial institutions accounted for 2.52% of the total circulating market value of a shares, and the balance of the two financial institutions remained stable on the whole. The number of pledged shares was 419.8 billion, accounting for 5.67% of the total share capital, and the scale of pledge was gradually reduced.
Recent developments in the industry: the full implementation of the registration system, steady progress, and the setting of "traffic lights" for capital
In an interview with Xinhua News Agency on December 30, chairman man of Yihui said that the work of the CSRC in 2022 will focus on the two keywords of "stabilizing the word and tackling key problems in reform". Specifically, chairman man of Yihui said that the conditions for the full implementation of the registration system have been gradually met. The CSRC is stepping up the formulation of the reform plan of the whole market registration system, Solidly Promoting the relevant preparations, and ensuring the smooth implementation of this major reform. In addition, while promoting the better play of the positive role of capital as a factor of production, we should promote the forward movement of the regulatory gate, assume their respective responsibilities, establish and improve the institutional mechanism to effectively control the negative role of capital with relevant parties, set up a "traffic light" for capital, and form a strong joint force between industry supervision and securities supervision.
Investment advice
In terms of policy, it is expected that this year's "steady growth" policy is expected to continue to work, and the liquidity environment is stable and loose, supporting market transactions. The full implementation of the stock issuance and registration system has been steadily promoted, the capital market has continued to expand, and the prosperity of the industry has improved. In terms of valuation, the current Pb valuation in the brokerage industry is 1.7x, which is in the 40% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years, and the sector still has valuation repair space. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management and maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of sharp decline in the secondary market; Risk of intensified industry competition; The risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations.
