The possible differentiation of Q4 performance of magnetic material enterprises is mainly affected by some non economic and raw material price transmission cycles. Performance forecast announced by some magnetic material companies:
Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech Co.Ltd(000970) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 330-490 million, with a year-on-year increase of 155.18% – 278.90%, of which Q4 will achieve RMB 125-285 million, with a month on month increase of + 39% – 216% and a median of + 128%. Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) it is estimated that in 2021, the growth rate Q4 profit will be 38-55 million yuan, with a chain comparison of – 1% – 43% and a median of + 21%; Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) Q4 is expected to achieve 74-160 million yuan, a month on month ratio of – 31% – 48% and a median of + 9%.
The average prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide in 2021q4 are 770000 yuan / ton, 2880000 yuan / ton and 10550000 yuan / ton, respectively, with a month on month increase of + 31%, 11% and 33%. When the demand is fully warmed up, the probability of the revenue end corresponding to the order has fully increased. The market pays attention to the reasons for the differentiation of Q4 performance month on month growth. 1. Differences in raw material inventory income 2. Different customer structures, Differences in transmission cycles in some fields such as new energy vehicles / wind power. 3. Affected by non profit and loss, the price fluctuation range of rare earth is narrowed, the price transmission is digested, and the impact of raw materials may be weakened.
The price of rare earth has experienced a sharp rise from 2011 to 2012 and a slight rebound in 2015, 2017 and 2019. Since Q4 in 2020, the price of rare earth has fluctuated upward and continued to exceed expectations. By the end of 2021, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 860000 yuan / ton, dysprosium oxide is 2.89 million yuan / ton and terbium oxide is 11.2 million yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 109%, 49% and 55% respectively. The average price in 2021 is 600000 yuan / ton 2.65 million / ton and 8.7 million / ton, with increases of + 92%, + 46% and + 87% respectively. Historically, due to the lack of sustainability of rare earth price rise, the price of Nd-Fe-B has not been fully transmitted. Since this year, 35-50 brands have increased by 60-90% respectively. The most concentrated consumption field in the downstream of rare earth is magnetic materials. The multi-faceted recovery of demand is the main reason for the persistence of rare earth price rise exceeding expectations and certain transmission in the middle reaches. At present, under the current price, The magnetic material factory basically tends to have a price adjustment cycle of 2-3 months. Therefore, the raw material price disturbance of Q4 price may gradually weaken in 2022, and the gross profit margin of magnetic materials is expected to return to the range of 20-25%.
We are optimistic about the trend growth of the performance of leading magnetic materials companies, and growth is still the core factor driving the stock price.
In the early stage of the market, the market paid more attention to the inventory income and price transmission of the rise of rare earth prices, while ignoring the growth. However, due to the continuity of the upward trend of historical prices and the limited demand growth, the cycle attribute is stronger. However, with the full volume of terminal demand, the cost decline and structural improvement brought by the advantages of supply chain and scale growth, we continue to be optimistic about magnetic materials stocks and open the market prelude of growth attributes. From 2022 to 2023, the average growth rate of performance is expected to reach 42% and 28%. Leading enterprises benefit from barriers such as certification & Capital & Scale & patent, and the growth rate is expected to be faster than that of the industry. Focus on Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) (existing capacity 23000 tons, planned capacity 40000 tons), Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan High-Tech Co.Ltd(000970) (existing capacity about 20000 tons, planned capacity about 50000 tons by the end of 2024), Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) (planned capacity 15000 tons by the end of 2021, planned capacity 36000 tons), Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) (existing capacity 14000 tons, planned capacity 21000 tons), Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) (existing capacity 5000 tons, planned capacity 21000 tons), Innuovo Technology Co.Ltd(000795) (current capacity of 10000 tons, planned capacity of 15000 tons), Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) (current capacity of 5500 tons, planned capacity of 10500 tons). Focus on Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) from the perspective of growth and Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) from the perspective of valuation
Risk tip: the technical route iteration or penetration rate of permanent magnet motor is lower than expected, the price of rare earth fluctuates sharply, and the demand for new energy is lower than expected
