Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) (300286)
The expected 30% - 55% increase in performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the high growth trend is expected to continue. The company released the performance forecast for 2021. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 160-190 million yuan, an increase of 30% - 55% (the median value was 170 million yuan, an increase of 43%), which was in line with the expectation. According to the announcement of equity incentive scheme issued by the company earlier, we expect that the share based payment expense of the company in 2021 will be about 38 million yuan (21 million yuan in 2020). If the impact of share based payment is excluded, The company's performance in 2021 will be about RMB 200-230 million, an increase of 37% - 59% (the median value is RMB 210 million, an increase of 48%); The annual non recurring profit and loss is 10-13 million yuan. If the median value is 11.5 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non recurring profit in 2021 will be 150-180 million yuan, an increase of 35% - 63% (the median value is 160 million yuan, an increase of 49%). In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 22.01-52.37 million yuan, an increase of 141% - 474% (the median value was 37.19 million yuan, an increase of 307%). The performance growth in 2021 was significantly accelerated compared with the first three quarters, mainly because the company concentrated all kinds of expenses in Q4 in previous years. Last year, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was only 9.13 million yuan. This year, in order to make the financial data of each quarter more accurate, the company confirmed all expenses including share based payment quarterly, and the financial data of Q4 was more stable, Driving the company's annual performance growth significantly accelerated compared with the first three quarters. At present, the demand of China's energy efficiency management industry is good, and the demand of enterprise microgrid continues to increase. The company's orders in the first three quarters increased by 40% - 50% year-on-year, and actively purchased land and new plants, promoted product R & D and capacity expansion, and accelerated the laying of sales channels. We expect the company to continue to show excellent growth in the future.
Enterprise energy efficiency control experts continue to benefit from the large demand for energy conservation and consumption reduction in industry and commerce. The company is a leader in enterprise energy efficiency management system integration in China. At present, it has created a rich energy efficiency management software and hardware product matrix, which can provide "cloud edge end" one-stop service, and has outstanding integrated solution ability for user side needs. In terms of production, the company's production base has realized the flexible production capacity of "small batch and multi variety", which can meet the non-standard needs of users at a lower cost. In terms of sales, the company continues to expand its market share through direct sales + distribution, and covers customers outside China through online + offline dual channels. The channels are well laid, which can effectively meet the scattered user side needs. At present, under the background of rising industrial and commercial electricity prices in China and accelerating the development of industrial and commercial distributed new energy, the demand for user side energy efficiency management and intelligent power consumption continues to grow, and the company is expected to continue to benefit.
With the accelerated development of distributed photovoltaic, the company's microgrid business is expected to meet the growth trend. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other five ministries and commissions issued the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025), which proposed to actively carry out the construction demonstration of "light storage, direct and flexible" building integrating photovoltaic power generation, energy storage, DC distribution and flexible power consumption. The company has rich reserves of microgrid technology, which can be combined with photovoltaic, energy storage, charging pile and other systems to help enterprises realize the integration of source network load and storage, which is in line with the development direction of "light storage, direct and flexible" buildings. The company has started the microgrid Research Institute and capacity construction in 2020 and is expected to be completed in the near future. The company's microgrid Research Institute and capacity project are conducive to ensuring the company's microgrid new product development, new process design and application of new technologies, realizing the industrialization of main product technologies, improving market response capacity, and helping the company to continue to grow in the wave of rapid promotion of distributed new energy in China.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 170 / 240 / 340 million respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 41% / 40% / 40%, EPS of RMB 0.80/1.12/1.57 respectively (CAGR of 2020-2023 is 41%), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 38 / 27 / 19 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: risk of declining profitability, bad debt risk of accounts receivable, depreciation risk of fixed assets, etc.
