Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) (002541)
Key investment points
The output of 21q4 was 960000 tons, with a steady increase of 10% month on month, and a new contract of 5.5 billion yuan was signed, maintaining stability
Manufacturing end: the total output of steel structure products of the company in 21 years was 3.3867 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 35.15%. Quarter by quarter, the output of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 steel structure was 68.7/86.1/87.7/962000 tons respectively, and Q4 increased steadily by 9.6% (previous value + 1.94%), and the growth rate was basically in line with expectations. The growth rate of Q3 in Q4 increased by 7.68pct month on month. According to our analysis, on the one hand, the newly signed contract amount of Q3 increased by 28% month on month, and there were sufficient orders on hand; on the other hand, it was due to the accelerated pace of investment in downstream industries such as infrastructure, public construction and manufacturing. Newly signed end: the company's accumulated newly signed contract amount in 21 years was 22.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%. By quarter, the newly signed Q1-Q4 was 5.242/52.88/67.84/5.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 92.0% / + 8.0% / + 36.9% / + 15.3%, and the newly signed Q4 fell by 18.7% month on month, still growing steadily compared with Q1 and Q2. Our analysis is mainly due to the stabilization of Q3 steel price and the new high base due to high downstream demand.
Large orders: the contract amount of newly signed large orders in 21q4 was under pressure month on month, and the unit price per ton increased slightly
Amount: the company has signed 4.747 billion yuan of new large orders (more than 100 million yuan / 10000 tons) in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 97.7%; Among them, the newly signed large orders in Q4 were 900 million yuan, a month on month decrease of - 34.3%, accounting for 16.3% of the newly signed contract amount in the quarter. Volume: in terms of processing tonnage, the company has undertaken 843000 tons of new large orders in the whole year of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 55.7%. Among them, Q4 processing capacity was 152000 tons, down 31.2% month on month; In terms of the number of large orders, the number of 21q1-q4 large order contracts is 13 / 6 / 14 / 10 respectively. Q4 large orders are mainly large industrial plants, and the number of commitments is generally in line with expectations. Unit price: according to the data disclosed by the company, we estimate that the unit price of new large orders for labor and materials in Q4 is 7613 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.2% month on month; The overall trend of large order ton price is good.
"Double carbon" and "steady growth" resonate, improve internal skills and expand upstream strategic partners, and the development can be expected in 22 years
Industry side: under the "double carbon" strategy, vigorously promoting low-carbon emission intensity prefabricated buildings has become one of the main focuses of the construction industry to achieve the "double carbon" goal; The central economic work conference set the tone of "steady growth" and moderately advanced infrastructure investment in 22 years. Under this background, we expect the demand for steel structure to be good in 22 years and the demand is expected to accelerate. Company side: 1) work together to cultivate internal skills. Improve management efficiency: the company has completed the deployment and application of intelligent manufacturing management information system in November 21, basically realizing the functions of daily wage real-time accounting, single component quality traceability and quotation, and automatic cost analysis, which is expected to further improve the company's management efficiency and reduce costs; The level of corporate governance is expected to be further improved: Recently, the company announced that the actual controller plans to transfer no more than 0.98% of the total share capital for employee incentive to promote the common growth of the core backbone and the enterprise; 2) Deepening cooperation with large iron and steel enterprises is expected to further consolidate the cost advantage of the purchasing end. According to public information, since the end of November, the company's senior management has visited / received head iron and steel enterprises such as Angang, Wugang and Nangang, signed strategic cooperation agreements and deepened business cooperation.
Profit forecast and valuation
On the premise of fully considering the possible changes in the company's main business costs in the future, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 19.355, 24.660 and 29.094 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 43.89%, 27.41% and 17.98%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.123, 1.506 and 1.924 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.54%, 34.08% and 27.79%, corresponding to EPS of 214, 2.88 and 3.67 yuan. The current price corresponding to PE is 23.7, 17.7 and 13.8 times. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of steel structure fabricated buildings is lower than expected; Steel price fluctuation; The growth rate of fixed asset investment was lower than expected.
