Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: on January 5, the company released the sales volume in December. This month, the company sold 233700 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 4.25% and a year-on-year increase of 11.77%.
In December, the sales volume of ai’an terminal reached a new high and exceeded the annual target. In December, the wholesale sales volume of ea’an was 14500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 98.49%, and the terminal sales volume reached 16675 vehicles, with a year-on-year and month on month increase of 119% and 14.5% respectively, reaching a new high. The cumulative annual sales volume of safety vehicles in Egypt reached 120000, with a year-on-year increase of 101.80%, exceeding the target of 100000 vehicles set at the beginning of the year. On January 1, 2022 aionsplus was officially launched and upgraded in appearance and configuration; On January 5, aionlxplus was officially launched. The new car is equipped with three lidar and sponge silicon negative battery, with a range of 1008km. The product power of the new car has been greatly improved, which is expected to contribute new increment to ai’an.
In December, the terminal sales volume of shadow leopard exceeded 10000, and the annual sales volume of trumpchi exceeded 320000. In December, GAC motor sold 32200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%, and the annual cumulative sales reached 324200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.35%. The main reasons for the increase in sales volume are as follows: 1) the demand for shadow leopard is strong. The terminal sales volume this month exceeded 10000. According to the company’s official wechat, the cumulative orders exceeded 70000; 2) The popular models GS4 and MPV (trumpchi M8 and trumpchi M6) contributed to the main sales. According to the company’s official wechat, M8 achieved the top sales of independent luxury MPV for 27 consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%. The second-generation GAC motor gs8, a new car launched in December, has more than 20000 orders in 18 days. With the continuous release of shadow leopard orders and the continuous hot sales of GS4 and MPV, GAC motor’s sales volume is expected to continue to grow.
The joint venture continued to improve, and the sales volume of Guangfeng in December hit a record high in recent three years. In December, Guangfeng sold 98523 vehicles in batches, with month on month and year-on-year growth of 15.91% and 36.54% respectively, hitting a new high in sales in recent three years. According to the company’s official wechat, in December, Camry’s terminal sales reached 28152 units, breaking the monthly sales record. The sales of leiling, willanda and hanlanda reached 21889, 16665 and 14401 units respectively; According to the car number, there is a strong demand for the new car race. Since the pre-sale on September 21, the number of orders has continued to grow, and 85% of the orders are high configuration models. In December, guangben sold 78402 vehicles, of which the sales of main models accord, Binzhi, haoying and fit were 20460, 18071, 14075 and 9237 respectively, which was the main reason for the month on month growth of guangben’s sales. According to the company’s official wechat, 10000 orders for new models were obtained only two weeks after they were listed, which is expected to provide power for guangben’s sales growth. In 2022, guangben’s model and Electric Vehicle E: NP1, Guangfeng’s Saina, fenglanda, Weisa and pure electric vehicle bz4x, as well as GAC Mitsubishi’s pure electric SUV artuko, etc. will be listed one after another, and the sales volume of the joint venture is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
New product cycle + continuous production expansion + mixed reform of Egypt and Angola. In 2022, the company’s sales volume challenges increased by 15% year-on-year. In terms of products, in the new product welcome cycle of independent and joint venture in 2022, GAC motor, ai’an, Guangfeng, guangben and Guangzhou Mitsubishi have successively launched a number of heavy new cars, which is expected to contribute to the increase of sales volume; In terms of production capacity, ai’an, Guangfeng and guangben are continuously expanding their production capacity. 1) at present, the production capacity of ai’an will be 100000 vehicles / year. According to the company’s announcement, the production capacity will be expanded to 200000 vehicles at the beginning of 2022, and ai’an will start the production capacity construction project of the second plant, with a planned production capacity of 200000 vehicles. The new plant is expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2022, when the production capacity of ai’an will reach 400000 vehicles; 2) Guangfeng’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 200000 “new energy vehicles” (line 4), GAC Toyota engine tnga series engine construction project and key supporting parts construction project were also started on schedule. Guangben’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 120000 new energy vehicles was approved to solve the production bottleneck for the introduction of more new products in the future; In addition, according to the company’s official wechat, at present, the asset restructuring of the mixed reform of ai’an has been completed. In the next step, the employee stock ownership and round a financing will be started. Later, it is expected to take advantage of the capital market to choose the opportunity to be listed, and the competitiveness of ai’an is expected to be further enhanced. Under the background of gradual alleviation of chip shortage, based on the new product cycle + continuous production expansion + mixed reform of Egypt and Angola, according to the company’s official wechat, the company has set the goal of challenging the annual car sales to increase by 15% year-on-year in 2022.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the sales volume of GAC ea’an is expected to increase significantly, GAC motor is expected to usher in the bottom reversal, and the listing of heavy models of joint venture brands is expected to bring significant performance flexibility to GAC. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.84 billion yuan, 9.81 billion yuan and 13.6 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 22.8, 15.9 and 11.5 times respectively, maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price will be 27.90 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the shortage of chips in the automotive industry is increasing; Risk that the independent sales volume is lower than expected; Risk of uncontrolled epidemic.
