Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) (300757)
In the post molar era, silicon optical technology is expected to become a key technology choice
The development of integrated circuits has entered the post Moore era: over the past 60 years, integrated circuit CMOS technology has been evolving in accordance with Moore's law. At present, the development of electronic chips is approaching the limit of Moore's law, the progress of integration technology tends to be saturated, and the requirements for data throughput of high-performance computing are increasing. There is an urgent need for technological breakthrough. Moore's law is facing the failure crisis. Silicon optical technology is expected to shine: the traffic in the data center is growing explosively, and the demand for high-speed optical modules is gradually increasing, resulting in the challenge of upgrading optical modules. The essence of traditional optical modules follows Moore's law. We believe that under the situation that Moore's law is facing failure, the silicon photonic technology of "replacing electricity with light" is expected to take up the banner. Aridamo Institute also believes that silicon optical chip will be the key development direction in the field of data communication in the future, and will be selected into its top ten scientific and technological trends in 2022, ranking third.
The global network data traffic is growing explosively, and the CAGR of IDC silicon optical module market is about 47% from 2019 to 2025
Lightcounting predicts that the market scale of optical modules is expected to reach 14.5 billion yuan in 2026, and the CAGR will be about 10% from 2021 to 2026. Benefiting from the development of cloud computing, video and IOT applications, the global network data traffic has doubled every 2-3 years, and the silicon optical module market has developed rapidly. Yole estimates that only for the data center, the shipment of silicon optical modules will increase from 3.5 million to 24 million from 2019 to 2025, and the corresponding value will increase from 364 million US dollars to 3.6 billion US dollars, accounting for about 47% of the six-year CAGR.
17% stake in ficontec, Germany, which is expected to touch the world's top high-precision photoelectric semiconductor technology
Ficontec, a joint-stock company, is one of the leading equipment manufacturers in the field of optoelectronic and semiconductor automatic packaging and testing in the world. Its products in the optical communication and industrial laser market mainly cover high-precision and fully automated production equipment for coupling, chip mounting, detection and testing. The main customers are giants in semiconductor and communication industries such as Intel, Cisco, IBM, dILAS and Huawei. The company is expected to touch the world's top photoelectric semiconductor technology and benefit from the development of silicon optical technology.
As the leader of photovoltaic automation equipment, the expansion of new fields is expected to improve both performance and valuation
The continuous expansion of the company's business in the future is expected to continuously improve its performance and Valuation: 1) the company is a leader in the field of photovoltaic cell automation equipment in China. At present, it is extending to the field of silicon end automation, and the expansion of product categories is expected to bring new growth space; 2) Ficontec, a joint-stock company, is a global leader in the field of Optoelectronics and semiconductor automatic sealing and testing equipment. The company's technology is expected to cooperate and continue to benefit from the development of silicon optics, lidar, semiconductor and other industries; 3) The hjt industry continues to develop. At present, the company has relevant technical reserves and is expected to cut in quickly in the future.
Profit forecast: the company's performance in 2021 is expected to reverse and turn positive. It is expected that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1 / 15 / 2 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 97% / 46% / 31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 0.7/1.2/155 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 62% / 32% from 2022 to 2023, corresponding to pe83 / 52 / 39x. As the leader of high-end automation equipment, the company maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
1) The price of silicon material is at a high level, which exceeds the market expectation; 2) The automation demand of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; 3) Due to the impact of the epidemic, the delivery progress of semiconductor / silicon optical equipment of ficontec, a German company with shares, was lower than expected
