Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104)
Ping An View:
The window period is still in, and SAIC's independent high-end new energy vehicles are on the verge. China has a large capacity of high-end vehicles, the competition of high-end new energy vehicles is not fierce, and the consumption structure of new energy vehicles temporarily presents an immature "dumbbell type". SAIC's independent brands are developed in layers. Feifan, which focuses on "science and technology" and Zhiji, which focuses on "intelligent luxury", operate independently. They both enrich industrial resources and vitality of new mechanisms. It is not too late to enter the site. SAIC independently has the successful experience and strength to create a single product explosion. The intelligent hardware of high-end intelligent vehicles produced in 2022 is in the first echelon. With the support of zero beam, momenta and other technology enterprises, SAIC's new round of high-end breakthrough is expected to be successful.
System reform releases flexibility, endogenous + external cooperation controls the core technology of intelligent vehicles. The five centers of software, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, big data and network security were established earlier. Zero beam technology is independent. It is expected to realize centralized electronic and electrical architecture + regional control in 2024 and support L4 + intelligent driving. In depth cooperation with the driverless Unicorn momenta, SAIC's autonomous mass production vehicle advanced auxiliary driving goes hand in hand with robotaxi. Promote the spin off and listing of 14 scientific and innovative companies of the group and liberate the market value.
The bottom of the joint venture is now, and we will start again. The performance of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM may have bottomed out in 2021, and the two joint ventures are expected to see marginal improvement in performance in 2022. In the short term, the listing of SAIC Volkswagen id.3 will drive the ID series to a new level. Audi brand is expected to become a new profit driving force for SAIC Volkswagen. In the long term, Volkswagen is determined in global strategic transformation and is expected to win a place in the era of intelligent new energy. SAIC GM has switched from three cylinders to four cylinders, the brand value is gradually repaired, the leading position of commercial vehicles is stable, and the models of aoteng pure electric platform are listed one after another, which is expected to boost the sales of SAIC GM's new energy vehicles.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the mass production and listing of SAIC's independent high-end smart cars will open the channel for the market value revaluation of SAIC's independent brands, and the bottom of the joint venture's profit will soon usher in marginal repair. We believe that the company's valuation is at the bottom of history, and the market lacks the revaluation of SAIC's high-end new energy brand. In view of the marginal improvement of the company's independent and joint venture in 2022, we adjusted the company's net profit forecast for 2021 / 2022 / 2023 to RMB 26 / 300 / 32.4 billion (the original profit forecast was RMB 26 billion / 27.9 billion / 29.2 billion), maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the impact of core loss exceeds the expectation; 2) The sales volume of Feifan and Zhiji new cars is lower than expected; 3) The company's overseas sales are less than expected; 4) The sales volume of joint venture brands declined, and the hematopoietic capacity of the company weakened.
