Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) (300286)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the performance will rise in the same direction in 2021. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is about 158-188 million yuan, an increase of about 30% - 55% over the same period of last year. The performance is in line with the expectation.
comment:
Promote the "double carbon" goal and the "double control of energy consumption" policy, improve the market demand for energy efficiency management and promote performance growth. The "double carbon" work opinions were issued, which clearly pointed out the path and measures of "accelerating the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system". All provinces actively responded to the dual control policy of energy consumption, promoted energy consumption reduction and emission reduction by limiting the total power consumption of high energy consuming enterprises, increasing electricity prices and limiting power consumption periods, further increased the burden of enterprise energy efficiency management and promoted the demand for energy efficiency management. The company's energy efficiency management system can realize real-time monitoring of power consumption and provide data support for technical transformation measures such as peak shaving and valley filling, load adjustment and so on; Make rational use of the energy data management and control platform to help enterprises improve energy efficiency and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction; The energy consumption online monitoring system can provide a solution for the enterprise access end system and complete the upload of energy consumption data of energy users. The enterprise's demand for energy conservation and energy efficiency management continued to improve, driving the continuous growth of the company's performance.
The system solution ability is outstanding, and the product market recognition and demand are gradually increased. The company has a relatively complete product ecosystem, which can provide one-stop services from cloud platform software to terminal components, forming a "cloud edge end" energy Internet ecosystem. The company's production line has flexible production capacity, has realized "small batch and multi variety" economic production, achieved hardware standardization and software modularization, and can quickly respond to the diversified and personalized needs of the user side. The company vigorously develops cooperation with local system integrators to meet the needs of local commissioning and installation services, open up the "last mile" of customer service, improve user stickiness, enhance the competitiveness of products and services, and promote the improvement of the company's performance.
Actively explore sales channels, direct sales and distribution, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) , full coverage outside China, and contribute to the rapid growth of performance. The company continues to improve the level of sales personnel and expand the coverage of sales personnel. At present, the company has more than 100 dealers and local system integrators, and the scale of system integrators will be continuously expanded in the future; Offline covers major cities and counties. Online China has official flagship stores in jd.com, tmall.com and Taobao. Foreign countries have completed the platform construction on Amazon platform. The company continues to improve its requirements for salespeople, selling products from single components in the past to complete microgrid energy consumption management system solutions, and then to future microgrid industry solutions. It requires salespeople to transform from business to technology, copy and promote regional successful sales experience, tap market demand and constantly open market space.
Layout microgrid business expansion areas to promote future performance growth. The National Energy Administration issued the guidance on promoting the integration of power source network load storage and the development of multi energy complementarity, which requires to promote the integration of "source network load storage", improve the guarantee capacity and utilization efficiency, promote multi energy complementarity, promote the consumption of new energy power, have the unified management idea of "source network load storage", and integrate local distributed photovoltaic, power grid The construction of microgrid with load is expected to increase rapidly. The company's microgrid business can be combined with photovoltaic, energy storage, charging pile and other systems to build a complete microgrid platform to help enterprises realize the integration of source network, load and storage. The company expects to continuously increase R & D investment in the field of microgrid expansion in the future and gradually improve the solution. This business is expected to become the company's profit growth point in the future.
Driven by multiple factors, the company's performance has entered a high-speed growth channel. Under the background of the era of energy reform, the "double carbon" goal and the "double control of energy consumption" policy put forward higher requirements for the enterprise's ability to save energy and reduce consumption and fine energy management. The energy efficiency management market space is huge. With its own technical advantages, the company, as a solution supplier of enterprise microgrid energy efficiency management system scarce in the market, has entered a high-speed growth channel. The company has outstanding system solutions and strong customer stickiness. At the same time, it actively develops sales channels and tap market potential. The company's energy efficiency management system business is expected to grow rapidly in the future. The enterprise microgrid puts forward higher requirements for the coordination and flexibility of the power system. The energy efficiency management system will gradually become a necessity for the enterprise to comprehensively manage the microgrid. The microgrid business collaborative energy efficiency management system is expected to become the future performance growth point of the company.
Maintain the "buy" rating: as a solution supplier of enterprise microgrid energy efficiency management system scarce in the current market, the company has gradually improved its product layout, continuously increased R & D investment, improved its innovation ability, actively developed sales channels, continuously improved its brand influence and competitiveness of products and services, and laid out microgrid business. The company's performance is expected to grow rapidly. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's operating revenue will be RMB 1.022 billion, 1.438 billion and 2.022 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42.22%, 40.72% and 40.58% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 170 million, 241 million and 334 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40.15%, 41.32% and 38.92% respectively. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.79, 1.12 and 1.55 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 41.32, 29.24 and 21.05 times respectively.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the macro economy is more than expected, the market competition is intensified, the project promotion progress is less than expected, and the future performance growth is less than expected, resulting in the reduction of valuation
