China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) (601985)
Key investment points:
The company's power generation in 2021 increased by 18.61% year-on-year. In 2021, the power generation of the company was 182.637 billion kwh, an increase of 24.787 billion kwh over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 18.61%; The cumulative on grid power was 171.039 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 19.11%. Among them, the power generation capacity of nuclear power was 173.123 billion kwh, an increase of 16.71% over the same period last year; The on grid power was 161.726 billion kwh, an increase of about 17.11% over the same period last year. New energy power generation was 9.514 billion kwh, an increase of 68.69% over the same period last year. Among them, photovoltaic power generation was 4.965 billion kwh, an increase of 109.77% over the same period last year, and wind power generation was 4.549 billion kwh, an increase of 39.00% over the same period last year.
The increase of installed capacity and utilization hours are the main reasons for the year-on-year increase of power generation. As of December 31, 2021, the company has 24 nuclear power units in operation, with an installed capacity of 22.549 million KW, an increase of 11.46% over the same period last year. The newly added nuclear power installed capacity of the company in 2021 is 1118000 kW for Tianwan 6 unit and 1161000 kW for Fuqing 5 unit. In addition, with the approval of the state, Qinshan nuclear power unit 1 and Qinshan nuclear power plant 2 unit 1 have increased their capacity by 20000 kW respectively. The installed capacity of new energy is 8.8733 million KW, an increase of 69.02% over the same period last year; Among them, wind power was 2.6347 million KW and photovoltaic power was 6.2386 million KW, an increase of 50% and 78.6% respectively. Due to the high power demand in Jiangsu, Fujian and other places, the average utilization hours of the company's existing nuclear power units are 7871 hours, an increase of 250 hours over the same period last year, which is the highest since 2016.
The units under construction provide growth. At present, the company holds 6 nuclear power units under construction with an installed capacity of 6.249 million KW, and 2 nuclear power units approved by the holding company to be started with an installed capacity of 2.539 million KW. The installed capacity of new energy under construction is 1.9218 million KW, including 269500 kW of wind power and 1.6523 million kw of photovoltaic power. The company plans to have an installed capacity of 56 million KW by 2025. According to the production progress of nuclear power under construction, we expect that the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 26.13 million KW, the installed capacity of new energy will be nearly 30 million KW and the installed CAGR of new energy will be 35.5%.
Profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 63.106/71.374/74.578 billion yuan in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, a net profit attributable to the parent of 8.368/107/11.28 billion yuan, an EPS of 0.48/0.61/0.64 yuan, and a corresponding PE of 14.34/11.21/10.64 yuan. Considering the steady increase of the company's nuclear power and new energy installed capacity, the rise of market-oriented transaction electricity price and the increase of nuclear power utilization hours, the company is given 14-17 times PE in 2022, with the corresponding share price of 8.54-10.37 yuan, maintaining the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning: nuclear power safety accident, wind power and photovoltaic installation is less than expected
