Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) (002541)
The output basically met expectations and maintained the "buy" rating
On the evening of January 5, the company disclosed its operation in 21 years. In 21 years, the company signed 22.83 billion new orders, a year-on-year increase of + 31.5%, including 5.52 billion new orders in Q4 single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 15.3%, and the steel structure output in 21 years was 3.387 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 35.2%, including 962000 tons in Q4 single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%, which basically met the expected period. As an industry leader, the company's production efficiency is expected to exceed the industry average level, and the output corresponding to the potential production capacity has great growth space. At the same time, lean control is expected to bring more sustainable cost advantages, and continue to be optimistic about the double rise of the company's output and ton net profit. Recently, the company issued an employee incentive plan, which we believe is another confirmation of the further improvement of the company's institutionalization after the resignation of Chairman Shang Xiaobo. In the future, with the optimization and blessing of the incentive system, the medium and long-term growth will be more guaranteed and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
The number of large orders has gradually increased and the customer structure has improved significantly
In the single quarter of 20q4 / 21q4, the company undertook 7 / 10 manufacturing contracts of more than 10000 tons, the quantity increased rapidly, and the processing business of incoming materials was only one. The type of order structure also changed from traditional distribution center, electric furnace steelmaking and other projects to emerging development directions such as high-efficiency battery module production line. We believe that the ultra-high growth in the number of large orders not only reflects the transformation of market demand to large-scale projects, but also reflects the improvement of the company's recognition in key customers. In addition, the increase of large-scale / short delivery projects is expected to improve the company's bargaining power at customers, so that the company's net profit per ton can benefit not only from its own scale effect, but also from the increase of single ton processing fee.
The impact of single quarter output or limited power production, capacity expansion or boost the continuous release of subsequent scale effects
The steel structure output of 21q4 in a single quarter is 962000 tons. We believe that the single quarter output may be affected by power and production restriction and other factors. The company's output in the whole year of 21 reached 3.387 million tons, which basically meets our expectations. In the future, driven by strong demand, the company's fundamentals are expected to continue to realize the growth logic, and the further improvement of the proportion of manufacturing business in the future will further optimize the report quality. 21q4 company has received a total of 110 million government subsidies, including 96 million government subsidies related to operation, 82 million after tax (15% tax rate), which also plays a certain supporting role in the growth of the company's performance. The company announced that the target capacity reached 5 million tons by the end of 2022, and the capacity expansion continued to advance. The company's scale effect and cost reduction ability are expected to continue to drive the improvement of net profit per ton. If the subsequent convertible bonds are converted into shares, the financial expense rate is also expected to decline significantly.
Continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of the company and maintain the "buy" rating
We believe that the subsequent boom of the steel structure industry is expected to pick up, and the company's Q4 capacity utilization is expected to rise month on month. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 to be RMB 1.14/14.9/1.86 billion. The company is expected to benefit from industries brought about by steady growth and affordable housing in 2022 β， oneself α It also continues to reflect that the double increase of output and net profit per ton is expected to continue to be realized. Referring to the current comparable company's 22-year wind, it is unanimously expected that the PE is 13.6 times. Considering that the company's business model and cost control ability are significantly better than the industry average, it is given 25 times PE in 22 years, the target price is 70.03 yuan, and the "buy in" rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the continuous rise of steel price has a greater impact on profits than expected; The improvement rate of the company's capacity utilization is lower than expected; The new supply of the industry exceeded expectations
