Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the production and sales express for December 2021: the company achieved 267977 and 233671 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.16% and 2.98%. The comments are as follows: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the production and sales in December 2021 continued to hit a new high in a single month, and the production and sales chain increased by 14.6% and 4.3% respectively compared with November 2021. Compared with December 2020, it increased by 21.4% and 11.8% respectively. In December 2021, the difference between production and sales (the value of production minus sales) expanded to 34000 vehicles. Under the background of relative shortage of chips, the first recovery of production is a reserve for future sales. The specific analysis is as follows:
Guangfeng recovered strongly and guangben accumulated power: GAC Toyota produced and sold 103195 and 98523 vehicles respectively in December. The sales volume of main models remained high. According to the Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) official website, Camry achieved sales volume of 27195 vehicles, ranking the top among intermediate vehicle sales, with 14401 for Highlander and 16665 for willanda. Guangfeng achieved a month on month growth rate of 10.4% and 47.1% respectively in 2021q4, rebounding rapidly from the impact of the 2021q3 epidemic. In addition, the sales proportion of three medium and high-end models (Camry, Highlander and willanda) in 2021q4 increased significantly month on month. According to Toyota’s global official website, Toyota’s global output is planned to be 800000 units in January 2022, higher than 740000 units in January 2021. According to automotive media such as gestar, Toyota’s production will continue to increase in February and March 2022 to make up for the production reduction caused by the epidemic in the third quarter of 2021. We believe that as the main sales contributor of Toyota in China, GAC Toyota will also recover at the same time.
In December, GAC Honda produced and sold 94365 and 78402 vehicles respectively, and the performance of the main models was still stable. The sales of accord was 20460, haoying 14075 and Binzhi 18071. In 2021q4, the sales volume of guangben increased by – 9.3% and 30.7% month on month respectively. Unlike Toyota, Honda will be affected by chips for a long time in 2021. In December, guangben’s output has recovered significantly. GAC Honda model intergra was launched on December 16, and the order volume exceeded 10000 in two weeks. The listing of the new Odyssey will help GAC Honda perform better in 2022.
GAC motor’s output reached a new high in December, and the sales volume of e’an terminal exceeded 16000: in terms of GAC motor, the production and sales in December were 43964 and 32151 respectively. From January to December 2021, GAC motor sold 324000 vehicles in total, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.35%. The terminal sales of Yingbao exceeded 10000 in December, and the new second-generation gs8 will be officially launched in December, with more than 20000 orders within 18 days of listing. In terms of Ethiopia and Angola, the production and sales in December were 16449 and 14500 respectively, and 16675 were delivered at the terminal. From January to December 2021, 120000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 101.8%. In 2022, gac-e’an will add 100000 capacity, which is expected to alleviate the current high capacity utilization.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: in 2021, despite the impact of supply chain factors caused by the epidemic, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) independent joint venture sales still ended perfectly. At the end of 2021, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) independent and joint venture vehicle enterprises recently listed and unveiled a number of competitive new models, consolidating the growth certainty in 2022 and beyond. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) continue to deepen organizational reform, intensify organizational vitality and escort the comprehensive recovery of the independent sector. We believe that the joint venture sector of the company will enter the stage of growth acceleration, and the independent sector will also enter the stage of substantive and comprehensive recovery. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term development prospects of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 7.27 billion yuan, 12.89 billion yuan and 15.75 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.70, 1.25 and 1.52 yuan. According to the closing prices of a and h on January 5, 2022, the PE of GAC A-Shares are 21, 12 and 10 times respectively, and the PE of GAC H shares are 9, 5 and 4 times respectively, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating of GAC A and GAC H shares.
Risk tip: the industry demand is low, the company’s new models are less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
