Main points:
The Shenzhou Shenzhen computer industry index fell by 3.71% and is expected to outperform the Shanghai Shenzhen computer industry index by 3.0% in the eighth segment of the market. From the perspective of track segments, affected by the positive signals released by the government work report, the indexes of cloud computing, artificial intelligence and Internet of vehicles fell by 1.92% / 3.27% / 3.31% respectively last week, outperforming the market by 2.30% / 0.95% / 0.91% respectively, which is generally better than the market. Affected by the international situation, the market is under pressure in the short term. However, with the intensive introduction of industrial policies, the computer sector will benefit deeply from the wave of rapid development of digital economy, the high-quality segment track will maintain a high boom, and the market is expected to move against the trend. Taking cloud computing as an example, according to the latest data from China information and Communication Research Institute, the scale of China's cloud computing market exceeded 300 billion yuan in 2021, reaching 303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 45%.
Looking back on the oversold market in recent three years, the computer has a significant advantage of high elasticity
Looking back on the oversold market in recent three years, the computer has a significant advantage of high elasticity. According to the statistics of the unilateral decline market with a weekly decline of more than 5% in the past three years, we found that in the cumulative 17 reference samples, the computer sector rebounded in the future market 11 times, and with its high elasticity, the rise in the week after the oversold was on average 0.79% ahead of the market, playing an important role as a flag bearer in multiple rounds of rebound. Based on the signs of stabilization and recovery in the current market in the short term, once the rebound market is opened, the computer sector, as one of the sectors with strong elasticity, may have a better rebound momentum than the market under the catalysis of favorable policies, increased trading volume and other factors. We believe that the low-level layout of the computer sector is expected to bring excess return on investment after the oversold market comes to an end.
The valuation returns to the allocation range and the layout of high-quality targets is at the right time
The computer industry index has retreated by more than 17% from the high point in January, and the pe-ttm is 45.3, a decrease of 27.75% compared with the average value of 62.7 in recent two years, highlighting the safety margin of valuation. We believe that as the overall valuation of the computer sector falls and the fundamentals continue to improve, the layout opportunity may have come. Based on the above views, we suggest paying attention to the following long-term investment opportunities: 1) Artificial Intelligence: during the two sessions, AI enabled industries were mentioned many times, such as using AI and other new technologies to identify and capture the abuse of big data; 2) Cloud Computing: the plan for computing from the east to the West has been issued, the construction of heavy data centers and computing power clusters, and infrastructure first drives cloud computing to penetrate all walks of life; 3) Industrial software: Premier Li Keqiang highlighted the development of industrial Internet, promoting the integration of industrial chain and innovation chain, and building more common technology R & D platforms; 4) Fintech: deputies to the National People's Congress proposed to directly increase digital RMB payment options in all app payment links, improve app convenience, and actively launch more pilot cities on the basis of pilot projects in 11 regions across the country; 5) Smart car: this week, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a document pointing out that the establishment of the standard system of Internet of vehicles network security and digital security will be preliminarily completed by the end of 2023.
Suggested concern
Artificial intelligence: Pci Technology Group Co.Ltd(600728) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) . Industrial software: Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , dingyang technology, Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Zhejiang Heda Technology Co.Ltd(688296) . Fintech and Xinchuang: Grg Banking Equipment Co.Ltd(002152) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) . Smart car: Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Arcsoft Corporation Limited(688088) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) , China Transinfo Technology Co.Ltd(002373) .
Risk tips
1) the policy strength is less than expected; 2) The capital investment is lower than expected; 3) The aggravation of the epidemic situation affects the implementation of the project; 4) The fluctuation of supply chain increases, which affects the development of science and technology industry.
