Core view
Parts and components: three enterprises released the operating data from January to February this week, and the performance is expected to be better 1) Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) : the operating revenue from January to February is expected to increase by about 25% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company increased by about 5% year-on-year; 2) Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) : from January to February, the revenue is expected to be about 7.4 billion yuan, of which the revenue of automotive electronics business is expected to be about 2.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 10%, mainly due to the growth of new energy battery management system business; The revenue of automobile safety business is about 5.2 billion yuan, the loss from January to February is gradually reduced, and the company is expected to make a profit in March. At present, the orders on hand (full life cycle) of automotive electronics / automotive safety business are about 75 + billion yuan / 220 billion yuan respectively, and the new orders of automotive electronics business from January to February are about 8.7 billion yuan (about 4.2 billion yuan / 4.5 billion yuan in China / Europe respectively); 3) Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co.Ltd(603809) : the expected revenue from January to February is about 273 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 10.4%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 60 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 17.57%.
Vehicle: China's auto market grew steadily in the first two months of 2022. Looking forward to the support of the auto market in the first quarter. 1. The auto market grew steadily in the first two months. 1) The auto market grew steadily as a whole. This week, the China Automobile Association released monthly data. From January to February, the cumulative sales of Chinese cars / passenger cars / new energy vehicles were 4.268 million / 3.674 million / 820000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.5% / + 14.4% / 158.2% respectively; 2) Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC and GAC have a good growth momentum Byd Company Limited(002594) / Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) / Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) / Geely Automobile / Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) / Chery group's cumulative sales from January to February were 187000 / 778000 / 381000 / 225000 / 183000 / 148000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 194.5% / + 19.7% / + 18.1% / - 4% / - 20.0% / + 17.3%.
2. According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, three positive factors supported the auto market in the first quarter. According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, in the first quarter, many governments may actively introduce policies related to steady growth + the shortage of chips in the automobile industry is expected to continue to be alleviated + the momentum of automobile enterprises is sufficient, which will support the automobile market.
Macro environment: steady growth + promotion fee policy stimulates the economy and lays the foundation for the recovery of the auto market. 1) economic indicators rose steadily in February. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the manufacturing production index in February was 50.4%, higher than the critical point; The new order index was 50.7%, up + 1.4 PCT month on month, returning to the expansion range; In addition, the expected index of production and operation activities of the automobile industry has been in the high boom range of more than 60% for two consecutive months; 2) The policy supports the consumption of new energy vehicles and emphasizes the implementation of tax rebate and fee reduction. At the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that he would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles this year and stressed the implementation of the tax rebate and fee reduction policy (it is estimated that the tax rebate and fee reduction for the whole year will be 2.5 trillion); 3) Investment in local projects will stimulate the economy. So far, 10 provinces and cities have announced the list of key construction projects in 2022. In 2022, more than 3000 new major projects will be started in various provinces and cities, and the total annual investment will exceed 4.1 trillion.
Investment suggestion: for the whole vehicle, it is suggested to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . Suppliers of automotive electronic related parts are expected to realize domestic substitution and increase in price and volume in the acceleration of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + brake by wire), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (lamp control), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automotive industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automotive intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicle industry is less than expected.
