The total amount and structure of social finance credit in February released over the weekend are lower than expected. The residents have the lowest medium and long-term history, and the residents are also at a historically low level in the short term. The weak corporate financing structure is superimposed on the recent performance of private enterprise real estate bonds, which reflects the impact of real estate and epidemic on macro demand step by step. It also reflects the steady growth, broad credit orientation, insufficient grasp and effectiveness. The government work report defined the GDP growth target of 5.5%. Premier Li Keqiang made it clear today to strengthen the implementation of macro policies. In the context of tense international relations, the significance of China’s “stability” is more important. The strength of follow-up policies may rise to a higher level, especially in the real estate and service industries.
Reiterate the view that the bank market will continue to be optimistic, and the market driven by steady growth and steady real estate will continue. There is no need to be pessimistic if the demand is weak and the effectiveness is not reached. The economy has a cycle, there is room for policy, and there is greater possibility and space for upward in a lower position. Individual stocks continue to recommend high-quality urban rural commercial banks: such as Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) and so on. Continuous recommendation of core targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , focusing on the value of undervalued targets.
In the market downturn caused by the fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the state-owned banks showed strong defensive, the banking sector adjusted more, and the performance of China Merchants Bank, Ningbo and postal savings bank was the weakest. These targets were the varieties with long-term positions of institutions. (1) The bank index fell 4.61%, with the exception of Bank of Lanzhou, individual stocks in the sector declined to varying degrees. Over the same period, the wind all a index fell 3.96%, the bank index lost 0.64 percentage points to the market, and the rise and fall of the sector ranked 18 / 31, down 7 places from last week. (2) The average decline of state-owned banks was 2.63%. Except for the more Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) declines in the early stage, the four major banks and Bank of communications all showed better defensive, with a small decline. The performance of joint-stock banks was the weakest, with a decrease of 4.06%, China Merchants Bank fell more, with a decrease of 8.73%, and China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) fell the least, with a decrease of 2.15%. In addition, the average decline of urban commercial banks was 3.68%, and that of rural commercial banks was 3.70%.
The inter-bank capital interest rate rose, and loose expectations strengthened. The inter-bank market capital interest rate generally rose, and Shibor increased by 15 5bp overnight 7 days compared with last week; Dr001 dr007 increased by 14 4bp compared with last week; R001 / R007 increased by 14 11bp respectively, and the trading volume was 20.34 2.34 trillion, a decrease of 0.57 0.65 trillion compared with last week. This week, the central bank made a net return of 330 billion in open market operations, focusing on liquidity changes at the end of the month and the end of the quarter. Premier Li Keqiang’s positive statement of strengthening macro policy and low expectation of social finance data, and the market’s expectation of easing has been significantly strengthened.
The yield to maturity of interest rate bonds first went up and then down, and the yield to maturity of credit bonds went up as a whole. The yield on maturity of treasury bonds was the first to fall. Last Friday, it fell sharply. As of the weekend, the active bonds of 10-year Treasury bonds were 2.79%, down 4bp from last week. The yield to maturity of credit bonds rose as a whole, and the pressure on real estate bonds was more prominent due to the negative news.
The bill interest rate first went down and then up. As of the end of the weekend, the three-month bill interest rate of the state equity bank fluctuated sharply during the week. The six-month yield of bank note rediscount of state-owned stock banks and urban commercial banks was 2.07% / 2.18%, down 4bp 7bp from last week. During the period, the interest rate of the three-month notes of the state securities bank fluctuated sharply during the week, down 54bp to 1.48% in the middle of the week compared with last week, and then up 54bp.
The yield of financial products is up and the yield of currencies is down. This week, the expected rate of return of financial products is 3.31% in one month, 3.64% in three months and 3.60% in six months, which is generally upward. The 7-day annualized yield of major Internet financial products: yu’e Bao was 1.952%, wechat CAITONG was 1.958%, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) shopkeeper wallet was 2.073%, and Ping An Ying (South) was 2.287%. The yield of currency continued to decline.
The bond market raised a total of 1374.5 billion yuan this week, with a maturity of 1419 billion yuan and a net financing of – 44.5 billion yuan. Net financing of financial bonds and treasury bonds decreased significantly, while local bonds and interbank certificates of deposit increased significantly.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
