The net outflow of foreign capital is significant, and the judgment of the impact of sector capital is relatively limited. From March 5 to 12, 2022, the net outflow of funds from northbound was 36.3 billion, which was at an all-time high. The proportion of foreign capital holdings in the computer sector has decreased significantly since the beginning of the year. As of March 14, 2022, the value of foreign capital holdings in the stock market was 70.228 billion, accounting for 2.43% of the total market value, a decrease of 0.53 PCT compared with the beginning of the year. According to the annual report data of public funds in 2021, the computer sector has been in a low allocation state, and the impact of capital is expected to be limited.
Since the ZTE incident, the sanctions have been escalating, and the market has expected. Zte Corporation(000063) was sanctioned by the United States in April 2018. Although ZTE reached an agreement with the United States to lift the ban and ZTE resumed operations, in May the next year, the United States further sanctioned Huawei and included Huawei and its subsidiaries in the “entity list” on the grounds of “national information security”. Since then, Sino US trade frictions and scientific and technological sanctions have continued, including Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Dahua, Inspur Group, Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co.Ltd(300188) , Dajiang and many other Chinese technology companies have been included in the sanctions list one after another. The external fluctuations show the characteristics of normalization and are gradually included in the expectations of the market.
The importance of “digital economy” has increased, forming an important support for industrial fundamentals. According to the digital economy plan of the 14th five year plan, by 2025, the digital economy will move towards a comprehensive expansion period, the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP, the ability of digital innovation to lead development will be greatly improved, the level of intelligence will be significantly enhanced, the integration of digital technology and the real economy has achieved remarkable results, the digital economy governance system will be improved, and the competitiveness and influence of China’s digital economy will be steadily improved.
The ability of self-control has been gradually improved, and the industry information innovation is vigorously promoted. Sanctions continue to escalate, and the urgency of independent and controllable development is also escalating at the same time. From the perspective of industry, the domestic IT industry chain has gradually matured, and a number of excellent domestic enterprises have been preliminarily developed in the basic software and hardware links such as core CPU, operating system, middleware and database, which can replace the office, some business systems and core systems of key customers such as party and government organs and finance. In 2022, industry customers represented by finance are accelerating the localization process. On the one hand, the relatively stable payment ability of financial customers strongly supports the domestic substitution industry chain. On the other hand, the business system of the financial industry is complex and the product technology requirements are high. Its substitution process plays an important role in promoting the overall domestic substitution and has banner significance.
Investment suggestions: the marginal impact of capital is limited, external sanctions are long-term and normalized, and market expectations are sufficient. At the same time, under the background of stabilizing the economy, the development of “digital economy” and domestic substitution of relevant inputs are important. We are optimistic about the relative income opportunities of the computer sector. We continue to focus on the digital economy and information innovation sectors, and we suggest paying attention to Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) , Digital China Group Co.Ltd(000034) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic policies are not as expected; Financial expenditure, financial and other customer investment are less than expected; The progress of product technology is less than expected.
