Event: yesterday, the National Health Council released the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). In view of the fact that the current strain of the drug has replaced the delta strain as the main epidemic strain, it has made important adjustments in the transmission of virus, patient diagnosis, treatment and discharge management in the case of further enrichment of therapeutic methods and experience. 1) Firstly, in terms of diagnosis and exclusion criteria, nucleic acid positive is still the gold standard for diagnosis. Because Omicron reduces the effect of monoclonal antibody on it, antibody is not used as the basis for diagnosis, and antibody is no longer required as the exclusion criteria in the exclusion of suspected cases; Secondly, covid-19 close contacts should be tested in time even if common respiratory pathogens are positive. 2) Secondly, there are also major adjustments in the treatment of patients. First, light cases are subject to centralized isolation management and are not required to go to designated hospitals for treatment; The second is to include Pfizer covid-19 drug paxlovid and ambacizumab / romistimab into the treatment recommendations. 3) Finally, there was a great update in the release of isolation and discharge standards. In the release of isolation, the original histological diagnosis was transformed into a clear CT value index diagnosis. In the discharge standard, the “14 day isolation management after discharge” was modified to “7-day home health testing”.
Timely and efficient treatment and correction programs have helped greatly improve the efficiency of epidemic prevention and control. Looking back on the above changes, we believe that this guide has made very timely and efficient changes to the characteristics of high infectivity and low mortality of Omicron, refined the requirements of diagnosis, and clarified and reduced the standards of treatment and discharge (light non admission, shortened discharge isolation period). We believe that it will bring the following important changes: 1) effectively alleviate the occupation of medical and social resources and the development obstruction caused by the epidemic. We believe that measures such as centralized isolation of mild diseases and home health testing after discharge can solve the problem of resource occupation to a great extent without occupying a lot of medical resources. Through home health testing, we can also solve the occupation of certain social resources and improve the efficiency of overall epidemic prevention and control; 2) More accurate and efficient diagnosis and prevention and control of the epidemic. According to the new characteristics of Omicron, weakening the diagnostic basis of antibody and directly taking CT value as the de isolation standard instead of fuzzy histological observation as the discharge standard can directly give the most clear guidance to medical staff and improve the effect of patient treatment and prevention and control; 3) Specific drugs will be included in the treatment guidelines to promote the use and development of relevant drugs. In particular, Pfizer covid-19 drug paxlovid is included in the guidelines. Paxlovid, as Pfizer’s original research, is a covid-19 drug with good curative effect in the world. It is approved to enter China this time to provide a very important means for mild and moderate covid-19 patients to be isolated for treatment outside the hospital.
Investment suggestion: Generally speaking, we believe that the revision of covid-19 treatment guidelines is of very positive significance, which can greatly improve the efficiency of epidemic prevention and control and covid-19 patient diagnosis and treatment, help the society learn how to effectively deal with covid-19 virus and continue to get out of the negative impact of the epidemic on social operation. In terms of investment, we still suggest to focus on covid-19 pharmaceutical industry chain. In view of the future treatment potential brought by China’s huge population base, the commercialization space of this drug still has great imagination. Previously, Pfizer officially disclosed that it plans to produce 120 million doses of treatment. We believe that with the commercialization of paxlovid in China, it is expected to bring greater increment to the profits of relevant cdmo enterprises. We suggest to pay attention to Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) 。 At the same time, MPP announced that paxlovid generic pharmaceutical manufacturers will also be launched in the near future. The huge global market has brought industrial chain supply opportunities to Chinese api enterprises. At present, the prices of key intermediates in the upstream are still at a high level, and companies with relevant technology and capacity reserves are expected to bring good profit elasticity. It is suggested to pay attention to Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) etc.
Risk warning: covid-19 virus mutation risk; The demand for diagnosis and treatment in China recovered less than expected; The quantity and Price Bureau deteriorated.
