Core view
Recent core ideas:
From the perspective of the industry, dig deep into the real picture behind the real estate data. We believe that as long as the land market does not warm up, the policy relaxation will not stop. When the market sentiment is stable, the real estate stocks are still very worthy of investment.
From the perspective of individual stocks, in the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit. Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) .
Sales: the performance of volume is better than expected, and the decline of price reflects that the market is still depressed
In terms of volume, the performance was better than the market expectation. From January to February 2022, the cumulative sales area of commercial houses was 157.03 million m2, a year-on-year increase of - 9.6%; The cumulative sales of commercial housing was 1545.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 19.3%.
In terms of price, the market is still depressed. According to the decrease of 10% in sales area and 20% in sales, we can calculate that the average sales price has decreased by 10%. As the recovery degree of the third and fourth tier is not as good as that of the first and second tier, the decline of the average sales price is not caused by structural factors, but more reflects the price reduction and sales behavior of real estate enterprises.
Investment and financing: the performance of development investment is not poor, but the structure has deteriorated, and the funds in place are still in the doldrums
The performance of development investment is not poor, but the structure is deteriorating. From January to February 2022, the completed investment in real estate development was 1449.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, but it mainly depended on the pull of construction and installation investment, reflecting the construction obligations corresponding to the last round of real estate sales peak. Although the market performance of land purchase is not very good, the proportion is relatively low and the drag is not obvious.
The funds in place are still in the doldrums. From January to February 2022, the real estate funds in place were 2514.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 22 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2021.
Commencement and completion: new construction continues to be weak, and completion is the end of a powerful crossbow
New construction continued to be weak due to insufficient soil storage and incomplete reversal of sales expectations. From January to February 2022, the new construction area of houses was 149670000 m2, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%.
Completion is the end of a powerful crossbow. From January to February 2022, the completed area of houses was 122 million m2, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 21 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2021.
Important events:
① the Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems; ② The government work report emphasizes that we should adhere to the principle of housing without speculation and speed up the development of the long-term rental housing market; ③ Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that the real estate adjustment is a good thing for the financial industry, but he does not want to adjust too violently; ④ Xiamen reduces the scope of application of the implementation plan for the notarization and public sale of new commercial housing; ⑤ Dazhou, Zhongshan, Tangshan, Xuancheng, Guiyang and Nanchang have relaxed the use of housing provident fund and loan policies; ⑥ Hengyang expands the scope of subsidies for talent house purchase; ⑦ Zhengzhou actively promotes the monetization resettlement of large shantytowns reconstruction projects; ⑧ Wuhan, Chengdu, Chongqing and Dongguan launched the first batch of centralized land supply in 2022 and re optimized the bidding rules; ⑨ Suzhou proposed 46 relief measures, and the pre-sale time of commercial houses affected by the epidemic can be applied for 30 days in advance.
Risk tips: 1. The policy is tightened more than expected; 2. The fundamentals of the industry went down more than expected; 3. The credit risk event of real estate enterprises exceeded the expected impact.
