Event description:
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 6730.5 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%.
Event comments:
From January to February, the social zero data picked up, and tobacco, alcohol, grain, oil and food maintained double-digit growth. With the steady improvement of residents’ income level, the consumption environment has been gradually improved, the residents’ consumption potential has been continuously released, and the market sales have increased well. From January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 6730.5 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%. Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February actually increased by 4.9% year-on-year. 2) Driven by the targeted issuance of consumption vouchers in many places and the rapid development of catering takeout, contact consumption such as catering has accelerated the recovery. Catering revenue from January to February was 771.8 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. 3) In addition, beverages, tobacco and alcohol maintained double-digit growth. From January to February 2022, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 101.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%; From January to February, the total retail sales of beverages was 48.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%; From January to February, the total retail sales of grain, oil and food were 310.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%.
Baijiu after callback configuration value highlights. According to the data of China Baijiu Association, the output of liquor industry above scale enterprises in 2021 was about 716 million liters, down 0.6% compared with the same period last year. Sales volume, Baijiu market share accounted for 13.2%. In terms of performance, the cumulative sales revenue was about 603.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, and accounted for 69.5% of the whole liquor market; The total profit is about 170.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33%, accounting for 87.3% of the profit of the overall liquor industry. The Baijiu industry is still in the long cycle of new growth characterized by structural prosperity. The high-end Baijiu will continue to lead the structural growth of the industry, and the industry will further concentrate on the dominant brands, the dominant enterprises and the dominant producing areas. In addition, the recent decline in Baijiu sector is relatively large, mainly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise in commodity prices, the outbreak of many explosions, and the economic downturn. However, the industry boom has not changed, the Spring Festival sales has laid a good foundation, and the overall outlook of the first quarterly report of the industry is good. The quarterly report of the annual report and spring sugar are expected to gradually release positive signals.
Online physical retail grew steadily, and online sales of consumer goods grew rapidly. Driven by promotion factors such as “online New Year Festival”, online sales continued to grow. From January to February 2022, the national online retail sales reached 1955.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 163711 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3%, accounting for 22.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods; Among the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 12.7%, 3.9% and 15.1% respectively. During the Spring Festival this year, the sales of online Baijiu liquor is also improving. According to the online data of Ali, the online sales volume of Baijiu industry in January 2022 was 1 billion 777 million yuan, up 9.02% over the same period last year, with sales volume of 3 million 498 thousand and 100, an increase of 4.45% over the same period, the average price of 508.08 yuan / piece, an increase of 4.37% over the same period last year.
Investment suggestions:
1) after the initial adjustment, the Baijiu sector was pessimistic. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , etc. 2) Although the price increase of mass products last year eased the cost pressure, due to the general rise in global commodity prices and the continuous rise in the prices of many raw materials, the cost side pressure is still relatively large. In addition, the current market demand is still weak, and the phenomenon of high inventory in some sectors exists. We believe that the investment opportunities of the whole board still need to wait.
Risk tips: macroeconomic risk, food safety risk, market style change risk.
