From January to February 2022, the social zero increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the consumption grew steadily. From January to February 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 7442.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year, and an actual increase of 4.9% after deducting price factors. The retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles amounted to 6730.5 billion yuan, an increase of 7% year-on-year.
Furniture retail sales continued to be weak, waiting for the valuation and repair market of the home industry. From January to February 2022, the retail sales of furniture was 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, which was the only category with negative growth, mainly because: on the one hand, affected by the downturn of the real estate market, the downstream demand weakened and the furniture consumption continued to weaken; On the other hand, affected by the high base in 2021, household consumption recovered rapidly from January to February 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. We believe that under the background of steady growth, real estate Support Policies occur frequently, reasonable housing demand will be guaranteed, and the prosperity of the real estate industry is expected to pick up. At the same time, in 2022, 315 activities, household enterprises enter the whole era and release heavy packages, which is expected to achieve brilliant results, boost market confidence and drive the repair of industry valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading household enterprises [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] with core competitiveness, continuous development of channels and categories, rapid growth of performance and increasing market share.
The retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry recovered rapidly, benefiting the core enterprises. From January to February 2022, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry were 63.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The leading enterprises continue to carry out product design and R & D, brand construction and channel expansion, continuously improve the market concentration, and the performance of domestic brands is bright. The outbreak of short-term consumption demand for gold and jewelry will drive the growth of market scale, and the leading enterprises are expected to benefit from the core. It is suggested to pay attention to: the advantages of channel and brand are obvious, and the product design grasps the consumption trend. It is expected to fully benefit from the leading enterprises [ Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ], [ Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ], [DEA shares] with explosive consumption demand.
The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased steadily, driving the growth of packaging business. From January to February 2022, the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 101.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, continuing the recovery trend in 2021. With the continuous growth of tobacco and alcohol consumption, tobacco and alcohol packaging business will also usher in development. Superimposed on the trend of high-end products, packaging products are expected to rise both in volume and price. It is suggested to pay attention to: the product structure is constantly upgraded, the large packaging business is growing rapidly, and the future of the new tobacco business is [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ]; Continue to expand tobacco and alcohol packaging business, cut into the supply chain of leading customers, and the performance is expected to grow [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ].
The retail sales of cultural office supplies continued to grow, and we are optimistic about the development of Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) in the future. From January to February 2022, the retail sales of cultural office supplies reached 58.9 billion yuan, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, realizing steady expansion. We believe that the impact of the double reduction policy on the industry will gradually fade, Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) create omni-channel, strong products and well-known brands, establish a moat, improve the quality and efficiency of traditional stationery business, continue to expand office direct sales business, continue to invest in new retail of Jiumu sundries society, and the performance growth can be expected in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) ] integrating the two wings, making continuous efforts to optimize traditional business, vigorously expand new business and continuously strengthen the core competitiveness.
Risk tip: the risk that the economic growth is less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition.
