Event: the ninth edition of covid-19 pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan was released
In March 15, 2022, the National Health Council released the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). Compared with the previous version of the treatment plan, the update points include:
① case finding: "add antigen detection as a supplement";
② case admission: "light cases shall be subject to centralized isolation management", "ordinary, severe and dangerous cases and cases with severe high-risk factors shall be treated in designated hospitals";
③ antiviral treatment: add pf-07321332 / ritonavir tablet (paxlovid) and domestic monoclonal antibody (ambavizumab / romistumab injection);
④ traditional Chinese medicine treatment: increase the contents of acupuncture and moxibustion treatment and children's traditional Chinese medicine treatment;
Isolation management: "two times of respiratory tract specimens nucleic acid detection negative (sampling time interval of at least 24 hours)" was revised to "continuous two times New Coronavirus nucleic acid detection N gene and ORF gene Ct value 35 (fluorescence quantitative PCR method, limit value 40, sampling time at least 24 hours), or continuous two times New Coronavirus nucleic acid detection negative. (fluorescence quantitative PCR method, the limit value is lower than 35, and the sampling time is at least 24 hours) ". Revise "continue 14 days of isolation management and health status monitoring after discharge" to "release isolation management or continue 7 days of home health monitoring after discharge".
Viewpoint: in the new stage of anti epidemic, we should pay attention to the marginal changes of the pharmaceutical industry chain
Epidemic prevention is dawning and new investment opportunities are emerging. We believe that the ninth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan reflects the trend of graded treatment for mild and severe cases, and comprehensively considers the contradiction between the strong transmission ability of the mutant strain and limited medical resources. As our report on October 6, 2021 points out: "the epidemic situation changes to" influenza "and" normalization ", and the detection prevention treatment changes to closed-loop. Under this judgment, prevention and control tends to be normalized, covid-19 vaccine The role of therapeutic drugs (especially the more convenient use of oral small molecule drugs) in global epidemic control is expected to be strengthened. " With the launch of covid-19 specific drugs in China, the release of covid-19 antigen detection and the increase in the proportion of enhanced needle vaccination, we expect that under the expectation of China's anti epidemic normalization, it may have different effects on the sectors of detection manufacturing drugs vaccines pharmacies:
① detection: under the short-term assumption, 10 billion antigen self-test market will be added. We believe that antigen self-test is helpful to grade and divert covid-19 detection, avoid the waste of medical resources caused by the unified use of nucleic acid, and alleviate the shortage of testing resources in the scenario of centralized detection demand. Considering the three scenarios in the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), under the neutral assumption, we estimate that the annual detection market is 8.5 billion yuan and the reagent market is about 5 billion yuan. At the same time, we believe that the three scenarios in the plan fail to give full play to the advantages of antigen detection. With the implementation of follow-up policies, the market space is expected to be opened later. Under the neutral assumption, the corresponding annual detection market is about 62 billion yuan and the reagent market is about 38 billion yuan.
② API and cdmo: large variety and large increment. We believe that overseas covid-19 specific drug intermediates and APIs are expected to become global large tonnage varieties. Based on strong synthetic technology, complete chemical supporting facilities and advanced production capacity advantages, some companies are expected to continue to benefit from covid-19 specific drug supply chain under global industrial division.
③ drugs: drug autonomy, pay attention to the potential market space of Chinese innovative drugs + traditional Chinese medicine. In our opinion, considering the independent and controllable treatment scheme, we need to pay special attention to the combination of covid-19 specific drugs in China. The derivation of listed covid-19 therapeutic drugs (mainly redcivir, molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir) is the mainstream R & D direction. China has made rapid progress, including the real biological azvudine (moderate and severe, overseas phase III), the development of pharmaceutical prochloramide (severe phase III failure, mild and moderate disease phase III) Yuanda pharmaceutical histone inhibitor stc3141 injection (conducted by European severe IIA), Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) peptide fb2001 (injection, phase I of moderate and severe diseases in the United States). In addition, we expect that with more and more evidence-based medical evidence showing the efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine in covid-19 treatment, it is expected to be popularized, and the potential investment opportunities deserve attention.
④ vaccine: strengthen the catalysis of needle policy and open up space. We believe that homologous / heterologous enhancement of covid-19 vaccine is expected to consolidate the role of the vaccine as the "first line of defense" against epidemic diseases, and heterologous sequence provides a choice with better immunogenicity and effectiveness. In the estimation of market space, we assume that 60% of the vaccinated population is covered by booster needles, and each person is vaccinated with one booster needle, corresponding to the demand of 760 million needles; Subtract 460 million inoculated needles, corresponding to the incremental demand of 300 million needles. In terms of structure, we assume that heterologous vaccination accounts for 50% and homologous vaccination accounts for 50%, and simply assume that the government purchase price of inactivated vaccine is 20 yuan / dose and the purchase price of other vaccines is 30 yuan / dose, and the corresponding incremental booster needle demand is about 7-8 billion yuan. We believe that the estimated market space results are only for reference, and the variables of concern include ① vaccine purchase price, ② strengthening needle promotion and charging method, and ③ the proportion of heterologous vaccination.
⑤ pharmacies: large single products drive the marginal increase of passenger flow. After the release of covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial), major pharmacies have actively arranged. In March 12, 2022, the official account of the Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) pharmacy group said that Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) and Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) had reached a cooperation. The first batch of products will be landed in 12 provinces and stores in Shanghai, Hunan and Jiangsu; Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and other drugstore leaders have also begun to layout. We believe that the new antigen detection products will help to increase the customer flow of chain drugstores and expand the customer group of chain drugstores from middle-aged and elderly people, Baoma and other home-based people to community people who need covid-19 self-test, which will help to increase the customer flow and increase the sales.
Investment advice
From different impact directions, we suggest to pay attention to:
① testing: from the perspective of specialization, product quality, production capacity, overseas clinical and registration approval, it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Asahi biology, Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , etc.
② APIs and cdmo: for cdmo, companies such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , etc. are recommended; In terms of API, it is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , etc.
③ innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine: in terms of RdRp inhibitors, it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Geli pharmaceutical; In terms of 3CL inhibitors, it is suggested to pay attention to Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Yunding Xinyao, Xiansheng pharmaceutical and Geli pharmaceutical; In terms of traditional Chinese medicine, it is suggested to pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc.
④ vaccine: from the perspective of strengthening the potential increment of the needle market, we suggest paying attention to the promotion and vaccination of Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) and other companies.
⑤ drugstores: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of chain drugstores with extensive layout, such as Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) , etc.
Risk tips:
The risk that the clinical progress of the core pipeline is less than expected, the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic caused by mutant strains, the risk of production quality accidents, the risk of price fluctuation of core treatment / vaccine / testing products, and the risk of changes in medical policy environment.
