The unit price of land purchase continued to rise, and the prices of new / second-hand houses in first tier cities increased year-on-year / month on month
From January to February, the land purchase area was 8.38 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 42.3%; The land transaction price was 36.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 26.7%. The land purchase unit price (cumulative value) continued to increase from March 21 to the end of the year. The land purchase unit price from January to February 22 was 4403 yuan / square meter, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 27.1%. Developers’ land acquisition continued to gather in high-energy cities. From January to February, under the influence of the high base at the beginning of 2021, the sales area of commercial housing was 157 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 9.6%; The sales volume of commercial housing was 1.55 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 19.3%; The average sales price was 9845 yuan / square meter, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 10.7%.
In February, the price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities was + 1.2% year-on-year, of which the first, second and third tier were + 4.4%, + 2.1% and – 0.1% respectively; The month on month ratio was – 0.1%, of which the first line, second line and third line were + 0.5%, 0.0% and – 0.3% respectively. The second-hand housing price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities was – 0.3% year-on-year in the same month, of which the first-line, second-line and third-line were + 3.5%, + 0.3% and – 1.3% respectively; The month on month ratio was – 0.3%, of which the first line, second line and third line were + 0.5%, – 0.3% and – 0.4% respectively; New / second-hand housing prices in first tier cities increased year-on-year / month on month.
The margin of real estate investment has improved, the completed area has declined significantly, and the funds in place for development are still weak
From January to February, the investment in real estate development was 1.45 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 3.7% (full year of 2021 + 4.4%, single month of December 2021 – 13.9%), and the margin improved; The new construction area of houses is 150 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 12.1% (the whole year of 2021 – 11.4%, and the single month of December 2021 – 31.1%); The housing construction area is 7.845 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 1.8% (the whole year of 2021 + 5.2%, and the single month of December 2021 – 35.3%); The completed housing area was 122 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 9.8% (full year 2021 + 11.2%, single month 2021 + 1.9%).
From January to February, the real estate development funds totaled 2.51 trillion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 17.7% (2021 + 4.2%); Among them, China’s loans, self raised funds, advance deposit collection and personal mortgage were 0.41 trillion yuan, 0.78 trillion yuan, 0.80 trillion yuan and 0.41 trillion yuan respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year rate of – 21.1%, – 6.2%, – 27.0% and – 16.9% respectively; The funds available for real estate development are still weak. With the continuous easing of industry liquidity, both demand side mortgage and supply side bond issuance are expected to improve.
Investment suggestions: 1) since the beginning of 2022, many parties have released the capital area pole signal, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, the affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, the new measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been structurally corrected, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” restoration has entered the implementation stage, and the liquidity of the real estate industry continues to ease. 2) While the liquidity is easing, China’s prudent management of real estate finance and the trend of “deleveraging” will continue to deepen, and some of the early overly radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but China’s real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. The high-quality real estate enterprises adhering to the principle of “moderate leverage, steady operation, quality and orderly development” will usher in the development opportunity of “orderly competition”, and gradually lead China’s real estate industry to the iterative upgrading of “rationalization of profits, refinement of management, high-quality products and green construction”. 3) On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to “meet the reasonable demand for improved house purchase”. On March 5, the government work report of the national two sessions made it clear that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand of house buyers”. We believe that the follow-up improvement of real estate credit support is expected to be improved, and the issuance of real estate bonds is expected to be large. On March 16, the meeting of the financial stability Committee of the State Council proposed that real estate enterprises should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for transformation to a new development model. We believe that the subsequent public offering of REITs in the real estate industry is expected to break the ice, and the first batch of most likely basic assets include affordable rental housing, commercial real estate, etc. 4) Recently, the market has paid more attention to the real estate sector and is optimistic about the long-term performance of high-quality leading real estate enterprises. It recommends China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China Overseas Hongyang group, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring, Sino US trade frictions and Russia Ukraine conflict may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China falling short of expectations, thus affecting residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases.
