Supply first, new infrastructure, and "counting East and west" lay the foundation for the development of digital economy
The 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy (hereinafter referred to as the "plan") proposes that digital economy is the main economic form after agricultural economy and industrial economy. "Counting East and counting West" is the first landing measure after the plan, and it is also an important basis for completing the development of digital economy. Specifically, "counting East and counting West" plans the construction of eight hubs, which are mainly divided into two categories: 1) timely response: four hubs: Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu Chongqing, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, with dense population, large data flow and demand-oriented; 2) Background processing: the hubs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu and Guizhou are rich in land and green power resources, the temperature is lower than that in the East, and the cost of data and computing center is lower, so they have resource advantages. At the same time, build ten data center clusters to assist the operation of hubs.
Eastern and western resources complement each other, and "counting from the east to the west" leverages the added value of one billion industries
On the one hand, it can realize the complementary resources between the East and the west, on the other hand, it can promote the circulation of data elements and further value mining. According to our calculation, from the cost side, the "counting from the east to the west" mode will last until 2025, which can directly save more than 300 billion yuan of data center power cost and about 100 billion yuan of land cost. From the perspective of industrial benefits, under the optimistic assumption, the scale of digital industrialization benefiting from "counting East and counting West" during the 14th Five Year Plan period is expected to reach 25 trillion, the scale of industrial digitization will reach 102 trillion, and the scale of the whole digital economy will reach nearly 150 trillion yuan. In the longer term, we believe that the scale of industrial digitization will increase more rapidly, and the integration of digitization and industry is the core direction.
Cloud digital intelligence supports development, and "East digital West computing" relies on three major paths to promote demand
We believe that "counting East and counting West" is a supply first policy, and the adaptation of demand will be an important step to truly enable the development of digital economy. Specifically, from the perspective of industry, we believe that the demand mainly comes from three aspects: 1) cloud computing: the computing intensive and storage intensive modes in IAAs layer and a large number of non instant response analysis in SaaS and PAAS layer can realize "Western computing", accounting for about 50% of the proportion of the whole cloud computing. 2) Artificial intelligence: in the next five years, 60% of the new computing power needs will come from artificial intelligence, in which a large number of non real-time computing power needs, such as picture rendering and big data analysis, can realize "Western computing". 3) Data transaction: the large-scale data element market requires huge underlying privacy computing power, and the computing power consumed by privacy computing is several times or even dozens of times that of ordinary computing.
Investment advice
We believe that the most direct benefit of the implementation of the "counting from the east to the west" project is the industries that need a lot of cold data processing, namely cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
Risk tips
1) technology research and development is less than expected; 2) Policy support is less than expected; 3) Downstream demand was lower than expected.
