Core view
Investment suggestions: maintain the "over matching" rating of the sector, wait for the recovery of the consumer industry quarter by quarter, and actively pay attention to the segmentation leaders with fundamental support under the background of "steady growth": 1) from the perspective of the whole year, it is recommended to actively pay attention to the beauty and medical beauty high-quality track leaders with clear long-term prosperity of the industry and full digestion of valuation under market adjustment in the short term: on the one hand, the head and tail of beauty brands are obviously localized, The leading enterprises actively upgrade their products around the needs of consumers, and constantly strengthen their competitive advantages through refined marketing layout. Highlight Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) , etc; On the other hand, the further standardization of industry regulations in the medical and American sector will accelerate the clearance of small enterprises and non-compliance products and create a soil for the healthy development of leading enterprises. Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc. are recommended. 2) With the escalation of epidemic prevention and control, consumers' hoarding and homesteading scenes promote the demand for essential categories such as fresh food, and supermarkets are expected to benefit. At the same time, with the weakening impact of community group purchase and other modes, and the business adjustment of Shangchao enterprises in place, the Shangchao sector is expected to usher in business repair, focusing on Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) , Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) , etc; 3) In the short term, when the market sentiment is unstable and the epidemic situation and other factors affecting the recovery process of the industry are still uncertain, it is still recommended to pay attention to the gold and jewelry sector with outstanding valuation and cost performance and supported by terminal sales data: the prosperity of the industry from January to February is excellent, and in the long run, the leading companies are expected to benefit from the trend of increasing concentration by accelerating channel expansion and product structure optimization. Pay attention to Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) etc.
Pay attention to the growth of supermarkets in the same store under the epidemic situation: the growth of supermarkets and other fresh channels in the same store is outstanding under the re overweight of epidemic prevention and control, which leads to consumers' hoarding behavior. At the same time, in the long run, with the ebb of subsidies and the liquidation of enterprises, the impact of emerging business forms such as community group purchase on business supermarket enterprises is weakening, and leading companies with high-quality supply chain and channel operation ability are expected to return to a benign development track. Performance of various platforms of beauty brands in the third quarter of the second quarter: 1) the top ranking of traditional e-commerce platforms is still dominated by overseas major brands, and the performance of domestic brands Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , etc. is still outstanding; China's China China's Kwai tiktok is dominant. With the maturity of China's local beauty brand, the emerging e-commerce platform has become an important channel for Chinese local brands to occupy the market. 2) the Chinese products are strong in the emerging e-commerce platform.
Social zero: the growth rate picked up as a whole, which must be steady. From January to February, the total social retail sales increased by 6.7% year-on-year, the retail sales of consumer goods other than cars increased by + 7.0% year-on-year, and the actual year-on-year growth after deducting price factors was 4.9%. 1) According to retail formats, from January to February, the retail sales of supermarkets, convenience stores, department stores, specialty stores and specialty stores increased by 3.0%, 12.8%, 2.1%, 10.3% and 5.3% respectively year-on-year; Online retail sales increased by 10.2% year-on-year, accounting for 22.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, and the penetration rate decreased by 2.5pct compared with December; 2) The overall growth of mandatory categories was steady. The year-on-year growth rates from January to February were: grain, oil and food + 7.9%, beverages + 11.4%, tobacco and alcohol + 13.6%, daily necessities + 10.7%, cultural and office supplies + 11.1%, and traditional Chinese and Western medicines + 7.5%; 3) Among the optional categories, gold jewelry performed beautifully and cosmetics grew steadily. The year-on-year growth rates from January to February were: cosmetics + 7.0%, clothing + 4.8% and gold jewelry 19.5%.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Offline exhibition stores are not as expected; The launch of new products was less than expected
