Event: on March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems.
Comments:
The statement of the financial commission boosted market confidence, and the follow-up policies are worth looking forward to
We believe that the above-mentioned meeting stressed the importance of maintaining the stability of the capital market, proposed to actively introduce policies beneficial to the market, and made a statement on various issues such as macro-economy, China concept shares, platform economy, real estate and the stability of Hong Kong’s financial market. We believe that the statements made at the above meeting play a significant and positive role in stabilizing market confidence, and the follow-up policies are worth looking forward to. The specific points of the meeting include: (1) earnestly invigorate the economy in the first quarter and take the initiative to respond to monetary policy. (2) With regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks. (3) With regard to China concept shares, at present, the regulatory authorities of China and the United States have made positive progress, and the Chinese government continues to support all kinds of enterprises to list abroad. (4) With regard to the governance of platform economy, relevant departments should improve the established plan in accordance with the principles of marketization, legalization and internationalization, adhere to seeking progress in stability, steadily promote and complete the rectification of large platform companies as soon as possible through standardized, transparent and predictable supervision, so as to promote the stable and healthy development of platform economy and improve international competitiveness. (5) Long term institutional investors are welcome to increase their shareholding ratio.
Wealth management track is the strongest beta of securities companies at present, with growth attributes
Under the background of the decline in the proportion of brokerage business income of traditional securities companies and the reduction in the allocation of self operated stocks, the overall beta attribute of the securities sector is gradually weakened, and the big wealth management track or the strongest beta variety of securities companies. (1) Whether it is a public fund channel side or a product side company, the core that affects the fund consignment or management fee income is to maintain the scale. Since the beginning of the year, the fluctuation of the net value of partial stock funds has increased, and the rise and fall of the net value has become the most important external variable affecting the short-term profit growth of the track. Under the two scenarios of – 10% / – 20% of the net value of partial equity funds in the whole year, we expect the holding scale of partial equity funds to be + 2% / – 12% and the daily average holding scale of partial equity funds to be + 12% / + 2% respectively in 2022. (2) The income from wealth management or asset management business based on the scale of ownership is applicable to PE valuation, which makes the valuation of the target of the track more flexible. Since the beginning of the year, the decline of net value and the pre cooling of new development have led to the decline of profit growth and valuation, and the improvement of market expectations may bring “double-click”. (3) The big wealth management track has both growth attributes. The long-term trend of asset management new regulations, comprehensive registration system, no speculation in housing and housing and personal pension dividends remains unchanged, the long-term trend of wealth management remains unchanged, the short-term stock market adjustment does not change the long-term logic of the industry, and the market share of leading companies is expected to continue to increase. In 2022, the demand for institutional capital allocation will increase, and the detailed rules of individual pension policy may be important marginal highlights and industry catalysis.
It is the first to promote the target of big wealth management track of securities companies, and is optimistic about the leading securities companies with undervalued value
(1) under the neutral assumption that the subject matter of the current wealth management track has a high valuation cost performance and the net value of partial equity funds in the whole year is – 10%, we expect the profit growth of China stock market news’s fund consignment business in 2022 to be in the range of 20% to 30%, and the company’s current dynamic PE is less than 30 times Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) big wealth management line (selling on a commission basis + holding and participating public funds) have a profit growth rate of 10% to 20%, and the static Pb is 1.3 times, which corresponds to less than 10 times of PE of big wealth management line in 2022. (2) The statement of the financial commission will boost the confidence of the stock market, and the follow-up policies are expected to be more positive. The securities sector will benefit comprehensively. We are the first to promote the target of the big wealth management track with stronger beta attribute. At the same time, we are optimistic about the leading target of undervalued value, and recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares).
Risk warning: the sharp fluctuation of the stock market causes the uncertainty of the profits of securities companies; The scale expansion of public offering is less than expected
