Cathode material: the key core of lithium battery performance
The upstream of the lithium battery industry chain can be roughly divided into four parts: positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte. Among them, the cathode material is the decisive factor of its electrochemical performance, which plays a leading role in the performance of the battery, and the cost proportion of the cathode material is also high, accounting for 30% - 40% of the cost of lithium battery materials. Therefore, the cathode material is the key core of the performance of lithium battery. From the perspective of industrial chain, the upstream of cathode materials includes metal ore (cobalt ore, nickel ore, manganese ore, lithium ore, etc.) raw materials, and the downstream is the application of power batteries, 3C batteries, energy storage and other fields.
New energy vehicles grew rapidly, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate continued to increase
The penetration rate of electric vehicles will continue to increase in 2021. In December 2021, the sales volume of electric vehicles was 530900 units, with a month on month increase of 18.02% and a year-on-year increase of 113.9%; The penetration rate of electric vehicles increased from 7.16% in January 2021 to 19.06% in December. In the whole year, the sales volume of electric vehicles reached 3.507 million units in 2021, and the annual penetration rate was 13.4%. In 2021, the installed capacity of power battery continued to increase, and the month on month growth rate increased rapidly at the end of the year. In 2021, the installed power of power battery reached 263.7gwh in December, with a month on month increase of 45.4% and a year-on-year increase of 96%. In terms of the annual growth trend, the installed power increased steadily in the first three quarters, with a month on month growth rate of about 35%, and increased rapidly in the fourth quarter, with a month on month growth rate of about 60%. The inflection point of iron lithium permeability in 2020 is due to the weakening of subsidy policy and the improvement of CTP on the short board of energy density of iron lithium system. On the one hand, after the sharp decline of China's subsidies, the disturbance caused by the choice of technical solutions for car enterprises has been significantly weakened, and the subsidy scheme no longer emphasizes the improvement of energy density. On the other hand, and more importantly, the excellent battery enterprises Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) have successively launched the packaging process innovation of CTP and blade battery, which has greatly improved the efficiency of grouping from cell to pack.
The shortage of production capacity leads to the decline of market concentration, and the competitiveness of excellent companies still leads
By the end of 2021, the capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China was 640000 tons / year. According to the production plans of various companies, the capacity of lithium iron phosphate will expand rapidly in the next few years. It is expected that the capacity of lithium iron phosphate will increase by 1.4 million tons to 2.03 million tons by the end of 2024, and the CAGR will reach 46% from 2021 to 2024. In comparison, only four companies announced the expansion of ternary cathode materials in 2021. It is expected that the production capacity of ternary battery cathode materials will increase by 330000 tons by 2024, which is far lower than the capacity increment of lithium iron phosphate. In terms of output, Hunan Yuneng ranks first in the industry for two consecutive years, and the market share will further increase to 25% in 2021.
Risk tip: the supply of upstream resources is insufficient, the price continues to rise sharply, and the production expansion progress of some links in the midstream is slow, resulting in lower than expected production and sales of the industry; The impact of international trade friction.
