Main points:
Steady growth continued, and infrastructure investment made a good start
From January to February 2022, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 12.2% year-on-year, 7.3 percentage points faster than that of the whole year of the previous year. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 8.1% and accelerated by 7.7 percentage points. Among the 18 commodity categories of units above Designated Size, the year-on-year growth rate of 11 commodity categories has accelerated. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to December 2021, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 54.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January to November and 2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year; Compared with 2019, it increased by 8%, with an average growth of 3.9% in the two years. In December 2021, the monthly fixed asset investment increased by 0.22% month on month (quarter on quarter). Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 8.1% year-on-year. Among them, the investment in water conservancy management industry increased by 22.5%, the investment in public facilities management industry increased by 4.3%, the investment in road transportation industry increased by 8.2% and the investment in railway transportation industry decreased by 8.0% year-on-year. Under the background of “stable growth”, the investment in infrastructure is an important starting point for expanding effective investment. At present, the capital and project reserves are sufficient, and the high growth rate of infrastructure is expected to continue. With the warmer weather and entering the peak construction season, the growth rate of investment in “old infrastructure” such as railway transportation industry is expected to further increase.
It will take time for the fundamentals of real estate to improve, and the tenacity logic at the completion end remains unchanged
From January to February 2022, the national investment in real estate development was 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The growth rate decreased by 34.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year; Among them, the residential investment was 1.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises totaled 7.845 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and the growth rate decreased. Among them, the residential construction area was 5.535 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; The new construction area of houses was 150 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%, of which the new construction area of houses was 108 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%; The completed housing area was 2.2 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 89.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. We believe that the logic of maintaining resilience at the completion end in 2022 remains unchanged. With the marginal improvement of real estate funds, the completion end of real estate will improve.
Cement: the output has declined, and the demand can pick up in March
From January to February 2022, the national cumulative cement output was 199 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, an increase of 61.1% in the same period last year, and the absolute value of output was lower than 41.96 million tons in the same period last year. From January to February 2022, the national cement output decreased significantly year-on-year. We believe that the main reasons are as follows: 1) the implementation of cement peak shifting production policy in winter in many provinces is becoming stricter, and the kiln shutdown rate of cement production line is high from January to February; In addition, under the influence of the Winter Olympics, some cement enterprises in North China have stopped production for a long time. From the perspective of cement mill operating rate, the average operating rate of cement mill from January to February 2022 is 18.12%, and the average operating rate of cement mill from January to February 2021 is 24.95%, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.13pct. 2) From January to February, the construction is generally in the off-season. In addition, the Spring Festival in 2022 is actually early, and the construction period basically enters the construction period after mid February. 3) Although the growth rate of infrastructure investment has increased significantly on a month on month basis, in terms of the segments of infrastructure, the investment growth rate of railway transportation industry with large demand for cement has not yet formed a strong pulling effect. It is expected that with the gradual availability of funds, the project commencement speed will be increased soon. Under the background of continuous strengthening of stable growth, the peak construction season will be ushered in March, the high growth rate of infrastructure investment will also accelerate the formation of physical quantity, and the demand for cement is expected to be repaired. In the medium and long term, the improvement trend of cement supply pattern will continue, and the regional concentration of cement leaders will increase. The resulting improvement of bargaining power is expected to further improve the profitability of cement leaders.
Glass: from January to February, the volume and price rose together, and follow-up attention was paid to the de inventory
From January to February 2022, the output of flat glass was 165 million weight boxes, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; Achieve small growth. By the end of February, the average price of float glass was 2382 yuan / ton, an increase of 312 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of January, a year-on-year increase of 774 yuan / ton. Since March, the price rise of glass has been poor and the inventory has accumulated, mainly due to the year-on-year decline in the completion of downstream real estate. There is a production line inventory ignition plan in the near future. When the output may increase in the short term, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, so it is necessary to focus on the de inventory of glass.
Investment advice
1) cement: recommended Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ;
2) glass: recommended Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ;
3) glass fiber: recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ;
4) water reducing agent: recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ;
5) consumer building materials: recommended Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) .
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment has decreased significantly, which is at risk; The implementation of relevant policies is less than expected; Increased uncertainty in the external environment and the risk of repeated outbreaks.
