Negative electrode material is one of the key materials of lithium-ion battery. The competition pattern is relatively stable. At present, the prosperity of downstream industry continues and the demand continues to improve; Negative electrode manufacturers have certain bargaining power, or phased conduction cost pressure, high graphitization self supply proportion, and the pressure range of enterprises is relatively small, so they can maintain reasonable profits; Downstream enterprises accelerate the application of silicon anode, which is expected to accelerate the large-scale production due to the industrialization of 4680 battery.
Key points supporting rating
The boom of downstream industries continues and the demand continues to improve: the boom of new energy vehicle market continues. It is estimated that the global sales of new energy vehicles will be 9.2 million in 2022, including 4.8 million in China, corresponding to the global demand for power batteries of 450 GWH and 227 GWH in China. The energy storage market has great potential. With the reduction of electrochemical energy storage cost and prominent advantages, it is expected to become the mainstream direction of new energy storage installation. In terms of demand, the total demand for negative electrode materials is expected to be about 830000 tons in 2022, 1.83 million tons in 2025 and 30% CAGR. The demand continues to improve.
Negative pole manufacturers have certain bargaining power, or phased conduction cost pressure: the negative pole industry has a lot of expansion, but due to the long expansion cycle, new production capacity and technology need to be verified, the effective supply is still concentrated in the head negative pole manufacturers, and the increment is limited. Affected by the increase in the price of raw materials and graphitization processing fees, the cost of negative electrode has increased and the profit has continued to be compressed. It is expected that negative electrode enterprises will still transmit part of the cost pressure to the downstream through the price increase, and the pressure range of enterprises with high self supply proportion of graphitization is relatively small.
The integrated layout and the improvement of furnace loading efficiency are the key to reducing the cost of enterprises: the tightening of energy policy and the impact of graphitization on the release of high-energy consumption capacity have become the bottleneck of limiting the release of negative electrode capacity. It is expected that the graphitization shortage will continue in the first half of 2022. After the self owned capacity of some leading enterprises is released in the second half of 2022, the capacity shortage will be alleviated to a certain extent, and the tight balance will be maintained throughout the year. Graphitization cost accounts for 60% of the cost of artificial graphite. Increasing the self supply proportion of graphitization can significantly reduce the production cost. The technology iteration starts in the industry. The box furnace and continuous graphitization have obvious advantages in power consumption and output per unit area, and are expected to become the development direction in the future. Negative electrode enterprises with forward-looking layout in graphitization capacity and new process will seize the opportunity and gradually open the cost gap with their peers.
The silicon negative electrode industry competes for the air outlet, and the leading manufacturers enjoy the technology and demand dividends: high power consumption is still the main development direction of new energy vehicles. Because the specific capacity of silicon negative electrode is much higher than that of graphite negative electrode, it is regarded as the negative electrode material of the next generation of lithium-ion battery with the most development potential. Since 2021, downstream enterprises have actively introduced the application of silicon negative electrode. Catalyzed by 4680 battery, the silicon negative electrode is expected to accelerate the volume. Silicon negative electrode has high barriers and requires a lot of R & D and capital investment. The head manufacturers have an early layout and have the first mover advantage. They will enjoy the dividends of technology and demand.
Investment advice
The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased rapidly, and the demand for power batteries continued to improve. The barrier of negative electrode materials is high, the competition pattern is good, the self supply proportion of graphitization is high and the profitability of enterprises with technical advantages is stronger. It is expected that in the next few years, the integrated layout and new graphitization process will still be the focus of enterprises' competition. Enterprises with forward-looking layout in the integration and new process will further reduce costs and expand revenue. Silicon negative electrode is becoming a competitive outlet for enterprises. Due to high barriers, the head enterprises with earlier layout have the first mover advantage and will enjoy the dividends of technology and demand. Recommend Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , and pay attention to beiteri, Nations Technologies Inc(300077) .
Main risks of rating
The new energy vehicle industry policy did not meet expectations; The product strength of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The demand of the industrial chain does not meet the expectation; The price competition in the industrial chain exceeded expectations; Adverse fluctuations in raw material prices; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
