Core view
New energy allocation, energy storage policy and energy storage planning. Recently, energy storage policies have been issued frequently, and 12 new energy allocation energy storage policies and energy storage plans have become the focus of the market. The implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan defines all other energy storage technologies and forms except pumped storage, that is, new energy storage. By 2025, it will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. Among them, in 2025, the performance of electrochemical energy storage technology will be further improved and the system cost will be reduced by more than 30%. At the same time, the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have successively issued their own energy storage development goals, and the central energy and power enterprises in the 14th five year plan are expected to become the main force of energy storage project investment.
China’s energy storage market continues to heat up. Driven by the substantial growth of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) power generation scale and the continuous decline of lithium battery cost, the installed scale of electrochemical energy storage has maintained a high-speed growth trend. With technological breakthroughs and policy support, China’s energy storage market continues to heat up. According to incomplete statistics of Gaogong lithium battery, from January to February 2022, China’s energy storage orders involved six projects, involving an amount of more than 900 million yuan and a scale of more than 3gwh. Energy storage capacity and project planning are in full swing. According to incomplete statistics of Gaogong lithium battery, since the beginning of 2022, China’s investment and expansion of energy storage projects has involved an amount of 54.044 billion yuan, involving a scale of more than 81 GWH.
Raw material prices remained high and energy storage costs rose. The cost of energy storage battery accounts for more than 50% of the cost of the whole energy storage system. The continuous rise of the price of upstream raw materials has further put pressure on the cost of downstream energy storage industry. The probability of lithium battery raw materials will fluctuate at a high level in the next year, and the cost of energy storage lithium battery will rise by 15% – 30% in the next year; The rising cost of energy storage system leads to the rise of bid winning price of energy storage project. According to the bidding price of lithium battery of Gaogong, the lowest price of energy storage system in February was 1.41 yuan / wh and the highest was 1.97 yuan / wh; At present, the average price of energy storage system has risen to 1.8 yuan / watt hour, an increase of 20% compared with 1.5 yuan / watt hour in 2021. In 2022, with the rising cost of upstream battery materials and cells with lithium battery as the core, it will be gradually reflected in the downstream system of energy storage and EPC price. On the whole, the rapid explosion of downstream demand and the high cost of raw materials in the upstream maintain, and the price rise trend continues.
Investment suggestion: the energy storage industrial chain is an industrial chain involving a wide range in the whole power system, and its upstream mainly includes suppliers of battery raw materials and production equipment; The midstream is mainly the supplier of battery, battery management system, energy management system and energy storage converter; Downstream are mainly energy storage system integrators, installers and end users. Among them, energy storage battery is the core link of the whole energy storage industry. Leading enterprises with obvious advantages in battery technology reserve are expected to increase their capacity in advance. We are optimistic about energy storage battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , energy storage converter and energy storage system integration leader Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , etc.
