\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 006 Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) )
Key investment points
Due to the tightening of safety supervision, the total traffic volume of Daqin Line decreased by 9.10% from January to February
In February, the average daily traffic volume of Daqin line was 1107100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.01%; From January to February, the combined transportation volume was 65.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.10%. We judge that it is mainly due to the stricter supervision of production in the place of origin under the influence of the winter Paralympic Games. With the end of the important meeting in mid March and the winter Paralympic Games, the superposition of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to work, and the upstream production capacity is expected to be released quickly, driving the recovery of traffic volume. It is suggested to pay attention to the repair of traffic volume of Daqin line in March.
It is estimated that the transportation volume of Daqin line will continue to recover to 430440 million tons in 2022
1) on the supply side, according to the data of cctd China coal market network, since the middle and late February, the daily output of coal in China has remained at more than 12 million tons, and that in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has remained at more than 9 million tons. With the continuous promotion of supply and production, the supply is expected to continue to increase.
2) at the transportation end, China Railway Group and other transportation enterprises play the backbone role of coal transportation. According to the data of cctd China coal market network, since March, the average daily coal loading of National Railways has increased by + 10% year-on-year, and the average shipment volume of Daqin line on the first Sunday of March is about 1.3 million tons, increasing the transportation volume; With the continuation of railway freight incremental action in 2022 and the continuous adjustment of bulk transportation structure, coal transportation will continue to transfer from highway to railway. On the whole, driven by the recovery of the epidemic situation, the reduction of accidental factors and the expectation of infrastructure development, we expect that the traffic volume of Daqin line is expected to maintain a steady growth in 2022, or further recover to 430440 million tons.
The impact of environmental protection policies is slight and the margin is loose, and there is still room for the long-term improvement of the traffic volume of Daqin line
According to China Coal News, on March 5, Xi Jinping General Secretary stressed during the deliberation of the Inner Mongolia delegation that to achieve the "double carbon" goal, we must base on the coal rich national conditions, adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, do not step on the "emergency brake", give consideration to the green environment and production and life, and in the long run, the transportation volume of Daqin line is still supported by "three safety cushions": 1) the coal source structure is adjusted, and the coal producing area continues to concentrate in the three western regions, Consolidate regional advantages Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) main business moat; 2) The adjustment of transportation structure, the continuous promotion of public rail transit, and the cooperation between the State Railway Group and local governments and enterprises to promote the incremental action of railway freight; 3) The diversion of competitive lines is weak. Compared with the four main lines of West to east coal transportation, the transportation cost advantage of Daqin line still exists. With the centralized coal source, the transfer of bulk transportation to railway and the resonance of low transportation cost, the Daqin line has sufficient guarantee at the demand end.
Absolute amount dividend commitment decoupling profit, under cautious expectation or both absolute and relative returns
According to the dividend return plan of the company from 2020 to 2022, the annual cash dividend per share shall not be less than 0.48 yuan / share. The commitment will be fulfilled in 2020, with a dividend of 4.8 yuan for 10 shares, with a dividend proportion of 65.5%. The dividend income of the company corresponding to the current closing price (2022 / 03 / 14) in 2021 can reach 7.1%, and the bottom absolute income. Based on stable performance growth and high dividend defense, it is recommended to pay attention to the steady allocation value of the company under the cautious expectation of the market.
Profit forecast and valuation
Assuming that the traffic volume of Datong Qinhuangdao railway increases steadily, without considering the adjustment of freight rate, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 12.212 billion yuan, 13.526 billion yuan and 13.808 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023. In addition, the company's current Pb (LF) is only 0.83 times, with sufficient safety margin and deterministic dividend income bottom, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the demand for coal has dropped sharply; Mass transit railway is difficult to sustain; Volume diversion on competitive lines.
