\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 098 Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company realized a revenue / net profit attributable to the parent / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent of RMB 555 / 171 / 150 million, a year-on-year increase of 47% / 60% / 49% and a year-on-year increase of 27% / 45% / 35%. The performance was slightly better than expected. In 2021, the company paid a dividend of 1 yuan per share (including tax), with a dividend rate of 49.38%.
Analysis and judgment:
Sufficient orders, forward-looking indicators, contract liabilities increased by 21% year-on-year. We analyzed and tracked the company's main points: (1) contract liabilities: in 2021, the contract liabilities (the part of the customer's prepaid training and consulting funds excluding tax) were 776 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.91%, providing a certain guarantee for 22 years; (2) Number of sales: 711 in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 33%; The sales efficiency was 780000, with a year-on-year increase of 10%; (3) EMBA number of principals: we estimate 1000 in 21 years and 1500 in 22 years; (4) Urban network expansion: three cities will be added in 21 years and five cities are expected to be added in 22 years. In 2021, the revenues from management training, management consulting and book sales were 492 million yuan, 59 million yuan and 04 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 49%, 35% and 0%. The increase of net interest rate by 3PCT is mainly due to the decrease of sales expense rate caused by the increase of equity investment income, financial income and scale effect. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 79.05%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.25pct, of which the gross profit margins of management training, management consulting and book sales were 84%, 44% and 30% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 0.59, -6.61 and -0.19pct. In 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 31%, with a year-on-year increase of 3PCT, which was mainly due to the decline of sales expense rate and the increase of investment income and net income from changes in fair value. In 2021, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio was 29% / 16% / 6% / - 3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.4/1.2/1.2/0.7pct. The decline in the sales expense ratio was due to the contribution of rapid income growth, and the sales expense still increased significantly by 40% year-on-year; The increase of management fee rate is mainly due to the increase of IPO listing service fee and the reduction of 20-year social security; The increase of R & D expense rate is mainly due to the increase of R & D personnel and salary, the increase of curriculum R & D and production expenses and the 20-year social security exemption. Investment income / income was 1.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1PCT, mainly from long-term equity investment income and dividend income; The income / income from changes in fair value was 3.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3pct, mainly the income from financial products.
Investment advice
In the short term, under the guarantee of high contract liabilities, the company grew well from January to February, but classes were eliminated in March due to the repeated impact of the epidemic. Therefore, we judge that there is a certain pressure on Q1. However, in the long run, we believe that after years of development, the company has established a perfect curriculum system, teacher system and channel system, with strong brand strength and high re purchase + re introduction rate; The future growth space lies in: (1) developing channels to obtain new customers in Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning &Architectural Design Co.Ltd(300778) and (2) further expanding the sales team; (3) Omo digital business school and other projects can tap the potential of single customer. Maintain the revenue of 717 / 901 million yuan in 20222023 and increase the revenue of 1.107 billion yuan in 24 years. Considering that the performance in 21 years exceeded the expectation, adjust the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 and 23 years from 209 / 295 million yuan to 223 and 290 million yuan, increase the net profit attributable to the parent company in 24 years by 370 million yuan, adjust the EPS from 248 / 349 yuan to 264 and 344 yuan, and increase the EPS in 24 years to 439 yuan, On March 16, 2022, the closing price was 45.65 yuan, corresponding to 17 / 13 / 10 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Uncertainty of epidemic situation; Personnel turnover risk; Curriculum iteration risk; Systemic risk
