\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 303 Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) )
Event: Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) issued the 2021 annual report.
The performance of silicon material leaders has been greatly improved, and the production capacity has remained at full capacity. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.23%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.724 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 448.56%. During the reporting period, the company achieved full capacity production of the existing production line, realizing the polysilicon output of 86600 tons, which exceeded the guidance of 83 Anhui Huamao Textile Company Limited(000850) 00 tons at the beginning of the year, an increase of 12.03% from 77300 tons in 2020, accounting for 17.75% of China's polysilicon output. The output is in the first echelon of the industry, and the annual polysilicon shipment is 75400 tons, which is basically the same as that in 2020.
Capacity expansion is advancing faster than expected, which is expected to drive a high increase in shipments in 2022. The 35000 ton phase III B project of the company was completed ahead of schedule in December 2021, and 1111 tons of silicon materials were produced in that month. The output was further increased to 2825 tons in January 2022. The total output in 2022q1 is expected to be about 9500 tons, and the construction and production climbing process are better than expected. According to the quarterly operation data released by Cayman Daquan, it is expected that 2022q1 company will achieve polycrystalline silicon output of 3100032000 tons. Considering that 2021q4 company will achieve polycrystalline silicon output of 23600 tons, affected by the strategy adjustment of downstream manufacturers, the company's shipment slows down and the sales volume is 11600 tons. About 12000 tons of inventory will be formed in the current quarter. This part of inventory is expected to be sold out mainly in 2022q1, It is expected that the polysilicon shipment scale of 2022q1 company may exceed 40000 tons. From the perspective of the whole year, considering the impact of annual production line maintenance, the annual polysilicon output is expected to be 12 Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) 5000 tons in 2022, and the actual shipment scale is expected to exceed 130000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%.
The product quality is further improved, and the n-type transformation process is expected to maintain the leading advantage. In 2021, the company's product quality will be maintained at a high level, with monocrystalline silicon chip materials accounting for more than 99%, and the product quality parameters are leading in the industry. At present, the photovoltaic industry is in a critical period of transformation from p-type to n-type, and n-type products have higher requirements for polysilicon quality parameters. At present, the company has achieved batch sales of n-type high-purity silicon materials, which have been verified by downstream mainstream customers. On this basis, the company has strengthened technology research and development. In 2021, the R & D investment reached 375 million yuan, an increase of nearly 700% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of R & D investment in n-type materials, It is expected to maintain the leading advantage.
Strengthen cost control and lead the industry in raw material consumption. In addition to improving product quality parameters, the company continues to promote cost reduction through a series of methods such as reducing procurement costs through procurement process control, improving production processes and reducing unit consumption of raw materials and energy. At present, the unit consumption of power, water and other energy, as well as silicon powder and other materials in the production process of the company's products are far better than the industry average level according to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, with significant cost advantages.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 11.742/11.926/14.901 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 9.4/9.3/7.4 times of the valuation, and maintain the rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the competition in silicon material industry is intensifying; The installed capacity of photovoltaic was less than expected.
