\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 180 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) )
Event: the company announced that the oral nucleoside anti SARS-CoV-2 drug VV116 tablets, which was jointly developed by the controlling subsidiary of Jun Tuo bio and Wang Shan Wang Shui, has been launched in an international multicenter, randomized, double-blind, controlled III phase clinical study comparing the efficacy and safety of standard treatment in the patients with moderate to severe New Coronavirus pneumonia.
Viewpoint: vv116 leads the covid-19 oral small molecule market. The company’s innovation strength and internationalization potential continue to be optimistic. The global R & D of vv116 is progressing smoothly, and the market value of covid-19 oral small molecule is unprecedented. The epidemic situation at home and abroad continues to evolve so far, and an endless stream of mutants continue to challenge the anti epidemic line of defense. The combination of “vaccine + specific drugs” can really reduce the impact of covid-19 epidemic on normal social life. Small molecule oral drugs with definite curative effect and convenient use have high clinical and commercial value. At present, the market demand for oral covid-19 small molecule drugs is urgent, and the brand value is scarce.
Under the background of leading overseas giants, the company has made a sudden rise in covid-19 small molecule drug research and development, which reflects the company’s accurate value pipeline exploration ability, forward-looking layout strategy and strong clinical trial promotion strength. Vv116 international multi center phase III clinical study completed the first patient administration, which has taken a solid step in the R & D process. Its research results will provide strong support for the smooth listing. We expect vv116 to be the first to be listed in the second half of 2022, bringing continuous sales cash flow to the company; The research and development of vv116 will accumulate successful experience for the promotion of other antiviral products and help the company practice the long-term global development strategy.
PD-1 internationalization is about to be launched, and many FIC pipelines are ready to go. At present, when the competition in China’s innovative drug market continues to be internal, only international development is the real way to break the situation, and it is also the place where the market has the worst understanding of Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) biggest. The listing of treprizumab in the United States continues to advance smoothly, and it is expected to become the first domestic PD-1 approved overseas; Relevant research has repeatedly created academic events, ASCO annual meeting and the history of nature, an international authoritative journal. The internationalization research of the world’s first BTLA monoclonal antibody is accelerating, and the heavy data will be revealed soon; The accumulation of cd112r, IL2, IL-21, CD39… Majestic pipeline will form an effective resonance with the existing PD-1 product treprizumab, and many first in class molecular reserves will store energy for the company’s long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment rating. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.014 billion yuan, 2.328 billion yuan and 4.238 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 151.7%, – 42.0% and 82.0% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is -739 million yuan, – 1037 million yuan and -811 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is -0.81, – 1.14 and -0.89 yuan respectively. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) has always been firmly valued by us with the ability of source innovation and internationalization. Three in-depth research reports have been released in one and a half years: 1) 20200710 is about to enter the harvest period, focusing on innovating and sowing covid-19 “special medicine” 62 page report on new shares of science and innovation board; 2) 20201016 PD-1 + neutralizing antibody double driven and accumulated biotech Nova 26 page update report; 3) 20210712 takes the lead in internationalization, continuously strengthens its commercialization ability, and strides forward to biopharma with a 28 page update report. It has continuously published nearly 20 series of follow-up comments and the update of innovative drugs weekly report, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) which is also the first biotech in the annual strategy of Medicine published in early December. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of R & D failure; The risk that the project progress is not as expected.
