\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 960 Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) )
Key investment points
The leader in the field of building fire protection has grown into a fast lane Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) is a fire safety faucet providing one-stop service in China. At present, it has initially formed a “3 + 2 + 2” business pattern: three main businesses with general fire fighting, industrial fire fighting, emergency lighting and intelligent evacuation as the core; A business system for gas fire safety formed by gas detection and gas fire extinguishing; Emerging businesses focusing on intelligent fire fighting and household fire fighting; At the same time, develop this strategic trend that continues to extend to the field of the Internet of things. The company has continuously broadened its product boundaries through self construction and M & A. the advantages of brand, channel and scale coexist. It is similar to Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) giving full play to its platform advantages and expanding categories in 2019. The company has gradually entered the fast lane of growth.
Policy escort, multiple segmentation scenarios, broad market space. With the increase of the degree of fire safety accident hazards in recent years and the changes in the performance requirements for fire safety in new scenarios such as industry and energy storage, the state has actively issued relevant policies to strengthen the installation and use requirements of fire safety products, and the rigid demand attribute of fire safety products is gradually strengthened; At present, the market scale of fire alarm for civil scenes in China is about 30 billion yuan, showing a steady growth trend; The scale of emergency evacuation market will reach 26 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan this year; The field of energy storage and fire protection is an emerging blue ocean market in the future. We estimate that the scale of China’s market is expected to reach about 9.8 billion yuan by 2025, and the CAGR is about 56.8% from 2020 to 2025.
With the continuous evolution of technical level, industrial fire fighting welcomes the opportunity of domestic substitution. The field of industrial fire protection needs to provide customized fire safety solutions according to specific needs, which puts forward higher requirements for the comprehensive strength of fire protection enterprises, but also has higher value. In the past, the market was occupied by overseas manufacturers such as Honeywell for a long time. In recent years Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) relies on its own technical advantages in chips, algorithms and other aspects to actively layout the field of industrial fire protection. At present, it has launched four band infrared flame detector, red ultraviolet composite flame detector and other products. From the perspective of technical indicators, Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ‘s industrial fire products are not significantly different from overseas competitive products in terms of protection grade, working temperature and response time, It is expected to accelerate the comprehensive competitiveness of domestic fire-fighting companies in the field of industrial substitution.
Relying on its strong R & D strength, the company actively distributes the energy storage and fire fighting blue ocean market. In the face of the fast-growing energy storage fire protection market, the company makes simultaneous efforts at the detection end and fire-fighting end, and adopts the accurate detection + composite fire-fighting scheme to match the fire-fighting needs of the energy storage power station, so as to avoid the problems of battery reburning and explosion to the greatest extent; In 2021, the company has won the bid for 10 foot / 20 foot / 40 foot energy storage container (Jutong) gas fire extinguishing system project, an energy storage substation project in Texas, Huagong intelligent energy storage sample box and other energy storage and fire fighting projects. With the outbreak of the energy storage industry, the energy storage and fire fighting market has become a new blue sea market. The company hopes to accelerate to seize the market share by relying on strong technology accumulation.
Based on the industry, grasp the trend and build diversified competitiveness of Bluebird. From the vertical perspective of the industrial chain, Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) has a self-developed “Crested Ibis” chip, which not only reduces the cost and increases efficiency, but also brings continuous iteration of technical products to meet the new needs of the changing market; From the horizontal perspective of the industrial chain, the company pursues a multi brand strategy, with more than 10 domestic and foreign sub brands such as kisheng, Jiuyuan and zhengtianqi, so as to create a differentiated brand matrix and better enter the differentiated market; From the perspective of industrial chain channel capability, compared with peers, the company has obtained higher average sales at relatively lower sales cost, and the distribution mode has broken regional barriers; From the perspective of industrial chain trend, the company’s ” Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) cloud” platform has been improved and optimized for the perception layer, communication layer, algorithm layer and application layer of the Internet of things. In the future, with the continuous development of the era of Internet of things, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the wave of intelligence and networking.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 536, 712 and 949 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 154, 204 and 272 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE valuation from 2021 to 2023 will be 25.1, 18.9 and 14.2 times respectively; The “buy” rating is given for the first time, and the target price range is 57.12-61.2 yuan.
Risk warning: policy promotion is not as expected; The industry competition intensifies and the concentration is lower than expected; Emergency evacuation and industrial fire fighting expansion are lower than expected; Energy storage and fire fighting were not advanced as expected
