\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 422 Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) )
Event: Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) released Q1 performance forecast in 2022. In 2022 Q1, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 263298 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50-70%, and the non net profit attributable to the parent company will be 232263 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50-70%, realizing EPS of 0.18-0.21 yuan.
Viewpoint: the growth of more than 50% of the company's Q1 performance exceeded the market expectation. At present, the PE in 22 years is less than 20x, and the investment value is prominent
The overall growth of more than 50% exceeded expectations. On the one hand, the Q1 performance base last year was not too high. In addition, we expect that the rapid growth of the company was driven by the large-scale sales of CHUANNING and new drugs. The main drivers of Q1 growth of the company are:
1. In the first quarter of 2022, the company made every effort to expand the market of infusion and non infusion preparations, continued to optimize the product structure, and the sales revenue and gross profit of infusion and non infusion preparations increased year-on-year;
\u3000\u30002. The company's generic drugs continued to increase in volume, and its operating revenue and gross profit increased year-on-year;
\u3000\u30003. The price of main products of Yili CHUANNING Biotechnology Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary, increased year-on-year, and the profit increased year-on-year;
\u3000\u30004. The overall financing interest rate of the company decreased and the interest expense decreased; Exchange losses increase at the same time.
According to the price of wind's main products in February 2022: the latest quotation of 7aca is 550 (last year's average price of 452.5), the latest quotation of 6apa is 340 (last year's average price of 340), the latest quotation of thioerythromycin is 505 (last year's average price of 467), and the latest quotation of penicillin industrial salt is 212.5 (last year's average price of 142.7). The overall price situation is relatively optimistic. It is expected that the profitability of CHUANNING will gradually increase this year, Superimposed with the new products of synthetic biology developed by Shanghai Research Institute, it can continue to grow in the future.
Sorting out the company's long-term investment logic: the company still chose high R & D investment in difficult times. From the approved products from 2019 to 2021, generic drugs have gradually entered the harvest period. The company's long-term logic remains unchanged, the large infusion industry has been upgraded, the structure has been adjusted, and the profitability of Kelun has increased. The environmental protection standard is high, and the full production profit of CHUANNING is improved. Imitation leads innovation and provides power for the high growth of the company's future performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating. The company has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic in 2021. The achievement of generic drugs further promotes the achievement of high-speed growth. The continuous follow-up of follow-up varieties will give the company continued driving force for revenue, and the pace of transformation of the company is more and more stable. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.096 billion yuan, 1.285 billion yuan and 1.513 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 32.2%, 17.2% and 17.8% respectively, EPS of 0.77 yuan, 0.90 yuan and 1.06 yuan respectively, and PE of 21x, 18x and 15x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: risk of industrial policy change; The risk that the CHUANNING project fails to meet the expectations; Risk of lagging behind in the progress of generic drug conformity evaluation; Risk of failure in new drug research and development.
