\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 862 Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) )
Key elements of the report:
On the evening of March 15, Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) released the 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.808 billion yuan, an increase of 30.77% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 591 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.25%.
Key investment points:
The prepreg products were delivered on schedule with quality and quantity guaranteed, and the aviation industry composite business grew steadily: the company achieved an operating revenue of 957 million yuan in 2021q4, an increase of 4.48% month on month and 66.43% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 23.098 million yuan, down 87.56% month on month and 23.30% year-on-year; The reason for Q4's poor profitability lies in the new R & D expenses of about 89 million yuan, and the new accrued credit impairment loss and asset impairment loss exceed 25 million yuan in total. In addition, the rise in the price of industrial raw materials has also had a certain impact on the profitability of the company. In terms of sub sectors, the aviation industry composite material sector is still the main source of performance growth of the company. In the segment business, the production and sales volume of prepreg reached a new high, contributing an operating revenue of 3.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.08%, and a net profit of 685 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.60%. The brake parts products of Youcai Baimu civil aviation and high-speed rail market rose well, contributing a total net profit of 12.46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 469.11%. The biological business of Beijing Airlines is relatively weak, and the business dilemma needs to be reversed; The machine tool equipment business continued to reduce losses year-on-year, but it still needs to be transformed and upgraded. In addition, it is worth noting that by the end of the reporting period, the company's contract liabilities had increased by more than 500% year-on-year to reach 696 million yuan, mainly due to the advance collection from the sales of prepregs; At the same time, the company expects the related party transaction volume of 7.08 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 14.01% in 2021 and 55.65% in 2021, which fully shows that the current downstream industry has a good prosperity and strong demand, which is conducive to the subsequent performance of the company.
Grasp the strategic opportunity period of industrial development, increase R & D investment and enable core business: under the industrial background of the continuous rise in the application proportion of aviation composite materials and components and the continuous upgrading of aviation manufacturing industry, the company continues to increase R & D investment, promote the transformation and upgrading of core business and accelerate business expansion. In 2021, the company invested 151 million yuan in R & D, with a year-on-year increase of 66.86%, which effectively promoted the transformation of scientific and technological achievements. During the reporting period, phased progress was made in the R & D of composite materials, civil aviation brakes, rail brake pads and machine tool equipment, which not only helped to improve the company's core competitiveness, but also laid a good foundation for the company's long-term performance growth and business structure upgrading and transformation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 820 million yuan, 1060 million yuan and 1317 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 39.05, 30.24 and 24.32 yuan respectively (corresponding to the closing price of 23.00 yuan on March 15, 2022), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk factors: the construction progress of the company's investment projects is less than expected, the information of enterprises related to the military industrial chain is opaque, the concentration of the company's customers is high, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.
