\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 301 Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue was RMB 1.187 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 51.43%, the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 484 million, with a year-on-year increase of 117.79%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent was RMB 342 million, with a year-on-year increase of 72.29%; In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue was 364 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 137.84%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 73 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.14%; Exceeding market expectations.
In 2021, the performance maintained a high growth trend and the profitability continued to rise.
(1) growth analysis: in 2021, the company's revenue increased by 51.43% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 117.79% year-on-year. The main reasons are as follows: ① due to the continuous impact of covid-19 pneumonia, the demand for general radiation series products continues to rise; ② The company continues to tap the needs of existing customers, and a number of products from multiple major customers continue to grow. At the same time, it continues to expand and introduce new major customers; ③ We have successfully introduced new dental and industrial customers, with dental sales revenue exceeding 200 million and industrial sales revenue exceeding 150 million. In the ice breaking high-end veterinary market, the proportion of dynamic new products has increased rapidly; ④ As a strategic investor, the company subscribed Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) 2406400 shares and was listed on the science and Innovation Board on October 15, 2021. The sales restriction period is 36 months, corresponding to the income from changes in fair value of 823483 million yuan in 2021.
(2) profitability analysis: the gross profit margin of sales in 2021 was 55.25%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.45pct; The net profit margin of sales was 40.81%, with a year-on-year increase of 12.36pct; This is mainly because ① high gross profit dynamic products are growing rapidly, ② the scale advantage is prominent, and the expense rate is further reduced. During 2021, the expense rate is 20.52%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.10pct, of which the sales / management / financial expense rates are 4.92%, 4.74% and - 1.41% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.19pct, - 0.26pct and - 2.05pct respectively.
(3) analysis of operating capacity and operating cash flow: the company's operating capacity was further improved. In 2021, the company's accounts receivable turnover days were 61.43 days, a year-on-year decrease of 12.87 days; The tight supply chain affected the company's cash flow level. The net cash flow from the company's operating activities reached 248 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.45%, mainly because the company prepared materials and accessories and inventory according to the business progress under the tight supply chain.
Benefiting from the growth of downstream oral cavity, lithium battery and semiconductor demand, the X-ray flat panel detector market ushered in a new growth point.
(1) X-ray flat panel detectors are widely used downstream, with a market space of US $2.8 billion in 2024. Digital X-ray flat panel detector can receive X-rays and convert them into digital signals, which is the key to the imaging quality and efficiency of imaging equipment; It can be used in a wide range of downstream applications. In the medical field, it can be used for the production of general radiation digital X-ray imaging system, DM system, DSA, DRF, oral CBCT, radiotherapy equipment, etc. in the industrial field, it can be used for the production of industrial nondestructive testing equipment, security inspection equipment, new energy power battery testing and semi conductor back-end packaging testing. According to yole's statistics, it is estimated that by 2024, the global market scale of digital X-ray detectors will reach 2.8 billion US dollars, of which the market scale of digital X-ray detectors for medical use will reach 2 billion US dollars, and the market scale of digital X-ray detectors for industrial and security inspection will reach 800 million US dollars.
(2) the market of digital X-ray detector is relatively concentrated, and the company is the leader of domestic X-ray detector. According to his Markit statistics, the market share of the top five detector suppliers in the global medical field exceeds 50%; Foreign giants mainly include wanruishi and trixell, while local enterprises mainly include companies and Careray Digital Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688607) . Chinese manufacturers represented by the company have high product cost performance advantages and perfect after-sales service support, and break the market monopoly of foreign brands with the advantages of independent innovation ability and localized service. In 2021, the company was recognized as a national specialized new "little giant" enterprise and a "single champion" in the manufacturing industry. It is a real leader in domestic X-ray detectors.
It plans to issue 1.435 billion yuan of convertible bonds and increase investment in technological innovation.
(1) guided by market demand, the company accelerates product innovation. On January 13, the company announced that it plans to issue convertible corporate bonds with a total amount of no more than 1.435 billion yuan, and invest in the industrialization project of new detector and scintillator materials (989 million yuan), the research and development of key technologies of digital X-ray detector and the construction of comprehensive innovation base (446 million yuan).
(2) the company continued to increase R & D investment and further enhanced its market competitiveness. Through technological progress, the company has continuously improved product performance and expanded new products. While ensuring the technical advantages of amorphous silicon detector, the company has increased investment in sensor technologies and products such as igzo, CMOS and flexible substrate, and the product quality has reached the industry-leading level. At the same time, systematic product definition and development for different application markets have been gradually carried out for new core components such as high-voltage generator and CT collimator, and some progress has been made. In 2021, the company's R & D expenditure was 146 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.87%, accounting for 12.27% of operating revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 0.03 PCT; The number of R & D personnel reached 256, with a year-on-year increase of 58.02%. A total of 55 new types of IP registration or authorization were added (subject to the date of obtaining the certificate), including 25 invention patents, and the income of products using new sensor technology exceeded 200 million yuan.
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The downstream demand of X-ray flat panel detector continues to exceed the expectation, and the expansion of the company's new products accelerates, resulting in the performance exceeding the expectation in 2021. We raise the profit forecast and predict that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.605 billion yuan, 2.089 billion yuan and 2.621 billion yuan respectively (the predicted value from 2022 to 2023 before adjustment is 1.573 billion yuan and 1.974 billion yuan respectively); Year on year growth of 35.20%, 30.10% and 25.49% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 629 million yuan, 853 million yuan and 1094 million yuan respectively (the predicted value from 2022 to 2023 before adjustment was 540 million yuan and 708 million yuan respectively), with a year-on-year increase of 30.04%, 35.45% and 28.35% respectively; EPS is 8.63 yuan, 11.75 yuan and 15.08 yuan respectively (the predicted value from 2022 to 2023 before adjustment is 6.92 yuan and 8.93 yuan respectively); According to the share price on March 16, 2022, the corresponding PE is 45, 33 and 26 times respectively. The company is a leader in China's flat panel detector industry. It has made continuous breakthroughs in products and technology, and has successfully realized the domestic substitution in the field of general radiation. In the future, it is expected to realize the domestic substitution in the global medical and industrial mainframe factories, including dentistry, new energy batteries, semiconductors, orthopedic C-arm, gastrointestinal machine, breast, radiotherapy and other fields. Guided by the development trend of the whole industry chain technology, the company also has arranged the core parts of image host such as high-voltage, ionization chamber, beam limiter and linear accelerator. The future growth space can be expected to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of product price decline, the risk of poor R & D and sales of new products, the risk of intellectual property protection and disclosure of core technologies, the risk of Sino US trade friction, the risk of market competition, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, the risk of industry prosperity falling short of expectations, the risk of raw material supply, the risk of covid-19 epidemic, etc
